Silver (XAG) Forecast: Powell’s Jackson Hole Remarks Put Silver Outlook on the Line

Silver on Standby Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

Silver finished last week slightly lower after failing to build on a rally to $38.74. That level now marks a short-term ceiling, while the market continues to hover just above the pivotal $37.87 line — the level that’s likely to set the tone for the rest of August. Until silver breaks decisively above resistance or loses support, we’re stuck in a tight, two-sided trade.

Last week, XAG/USD settled at $38.00, down $0.32 or -0.83%.

How Will Traders React to $37.87?

This zone around $37.87 is where traders are making their call — either silver is presenting value, or it’s setting up for a deeper correction. Some are comfortable fading into it, seeing dip-buying potential into the low $37s. Others are staying patient, waiting for a clean breakout over $38.74 to chase strength. Either approach is valid, but carry different levels of risk for traders. The next leg will likely depend on external catalysts.

Should $37.87 fail, the next line of defense sits at $36.21, followed by the broader support zone down to $35.28. On the upside, it’s all about a move through $38.74 — that opens the door to retest the July high at $39.53, and from there, silver could start attracting breakout momentum.

Fed in Focus: Powell Could Be the Spark

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium kicks off Thursday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking Friday. After last week’s surprise jump in PPI, there’s fresh uncertainty around the September rate cut. Markets still lean dovish, but the conviction has weakened — and Powell’s tone could either re-anchor those bets or knock them down completely.

Also on deck this week: Wednesday’s release of the July FOMC meeting minutes, plus jobless claims and flash PMI numbers on Thursday. Traders will be looking for clues on how the Fed is weighing tariffs, inflation, and labor market softness — all of which could shape rate expectations into September.

Outlook: Sideways for Now, But Not for Long

Until Powell speaks, silver is likely to continue consolidating above support. But this isn’t a market that’s going to stay still forever. The ingredients for a directional move are all there — strong support, a clear upside trigger, and a week full of policy signals. For now, the bias stays neutral. But that won’t last.

If silver holds above $37.87 and Powell leaves the door open to easing, that could be the green light for another run toward $39.53. If not? We could be staring at a retracement toward $36.21 or lower.

Either way, watch $37.87. That’s the battleground.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.