Silver (XAG) Forecast: Traders Fade Safe Havens—50-Day Moving Average Support Now in Sight

Silver Drops Below $48 as Fed and Trade Talks Sap Demand

Spot silver (XAG/USD) extended losses early this week, falling over 2% to challenge last week’s low at $47.53. Without a meaningful rebound, the metal risks further downside pressure as traders brace for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision and continued optimism around U.S.-China trade progress.

At 11:21 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $47.43, down $1.23 or -2.54%.

Rate Cut Expected, But Fed Forward Guidance Is Key

Traders are largely pricing in a 25-basis-point cut, with CME FedWatch Tool data showing a 97% probability of a move to the 375–400 basis point range. However, with recent inflation readings cooling and Federal Open Market Committee members still divided, expectations for forward guidance remain muted.

Deutsche Bank analysts noted that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may offer little direction on future policy, choosing instead to focus on broader themes such as balance sheet management and financial stability. This uncertain policy outlook is contributing to risk-on sentiment, reducing demand for defensive plays like silver and gold.

Treasury Yields Edge Higher as Safe-Haven Demand Cools

Adding pressure to silver, U.S. Treasury yields inched higher across the curve. The 10-year yield rose 3.1 basis points to 4.028%, while the 30-year yield added nearly 3 basis points to 4.615%. Rising yields reflect the market’s reduced urgency for safety trades, particularly with global equities buoyed by improving diplomatic tone between Washington and Beijing.

Talks between President Trump and President Xi, set for Thursday in South Korea, are being characterized as “constructive” and “far-reaching,” according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — adding to the shift away from precious metals.

Gold Pullback Confirms Broader Precious Metals Weakness

Gold has dropped nearly 2% and broken below $4100.43, reinforcing the broader weakness in the precious metals complex. The fourth consecutive rejection near $4162.93 and $4192.86 underscores bearish momentum. With spot gold eyeing deeper support near $3846.50–$3771.46, silver traders are watching for spillover selling pressure.

Short-Term Silver Outlook: Bearish Bias Holds Below $47.53

With safe-haven demand undercut by improving trade sentiment and a tepid Fed outlook, silver remains exposed to further downside. A confirmed break below $47.53 would open the door to the 50-day moving average at $44.64.

Unless a clear bullish catalyst emerges from Wednesday’s Fed statement or Thursday’s Trump–Xi meeting, rallies are likely to be capped well below the $51.01 resistance level.

Expect continued selling pressure unless silver can decisively recover above last week’s floor. For now, the short-term bias remains bearish.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.