Silver (XAG) Forecast: Traders Focused on 50-Day Moving Average—Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?

Silver Holds Support as CPI Looms Large; Market Watches Fed Signals and Gold’s Drag

Silver climbed modestly Tuesday, reclaiming the 50-day moving average at $32.80 as traders positioned ahead of the April U.S. CPI report. That level is now the critical pivot, offering immediate support. But the broader tone in silver is shaped just as much by policy expectations and gold’s continued weakness as by chart levels.

The market’s short-term strength has been underpinned by a softer dollar and stagnant Treasury yields, alongside a modest unwind in gold/silver spread trades. But with inflation data and central bank signals on deck, silver’s hold above the 50-day average remains precarious.

At 12:05 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $32.81, up $0.21 or +0.64%.

Near-Term Setup: Bulls Need $33.25 to Stick

Technically, silver has cleared the first hurdle by reclaiming the 50-day average. The next inflection point is $33.25. A break above that would indicate stronger buying interest, targeting $33.70 next. If bullish momentum builds, the path opens up toward $34.59–$34.87. On the downside, failure to hold $32.80 would likely send silver toward $32.19, with $31.45 and $31.24 offering deeper support.

These levels, however, are only part of the picture. Traders are reluctant to chase breakouts without a clearer read on Fed policy, especially with CPI and rate expectations so tightly linked.

Dollar in Focus as CPI May Lack Tariff Punch

Headline inflation is expected to come in at 0.3% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year, with core CPI forecast at 0.2% and 2.8%. While tariffs enacted in April might eventually lift consumer prices, economists—including those at Barclays—expect minimal near-term impact. Exemptions and front-loaded shipments suggest that any inflation bump is more likely later in the year.

This means the April CPI may be less of a volatility event—unless it comes in unexpectedly hot or cold. A cooler print could pressure the dollar and support silver via lower real yields. Conversely, a strong number may reinforce Fed hawkishness, boost yields, and drag on metals.

Gold’s Weak Tone Limits Silver’s Breakout Potential

Gold remains on the defensive following a 3% drop Monday after news of a temporary U.S.–China tariff truce triggered a global risk-on mood. As equities rallied and the dollar hit a one-month high, gold sank, only finding tentative support near $3,200. Citi cut its 3-month gold target to $3,150, citing lower geopolitical risk and softening physical demand—both factors weighing on sentiment across the precious metals space.

While silver has decoupled slightly from gold in recent sessions, the correlation remains strong enough that continued gold weakness is likely to limit silver’s upside unless inflation or Fed signals shift decisively.

Silver Forecast: CPI Reaction and $32.80 Level Will Define Next Move

Silver’s near-term outlook hinges on both the CPI release and how the market handles the 50-day moving average at $32.80. A strong hold above this level keeps the bullish scenario alive with upside levels clearly defined.

But any break below $32.80, especially if paired with a firmer dollar or rising yields, would hand momentum back to sellers.

Traders should stay alert to both the price reaction and the policy signals that follow the data—those will determine whether silver breaks higher or turns lower.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.