S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 E-mini Breaks Through 4100

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 03.04.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has rallied during the trading session on Friday, as we are now well above the 4100 level. That being said, there’s a lot of noise between here and 4200, so we need to be very cautious about getting overly aggressive. In fact, you can even make an argument that we have been a little overbought, but it’s also worth pointing out that we had formed 3 green candles in a row, so it does suggest that there is pressure building up to the upside.

The 50-Day EMA is flat right along with the 200-Day EMA, sitting just above the 4000 level. The 4000 level courses a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where you would have to say it’s “fair value” of the previous consolidation area. If we were to break down below there, then it would obviously be a very negative turn of events. That being said, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see exhaustion that we can sell. However, I am the first to admit that the buyers will have completely taken control if we can get above the 4200 level. At that point, I think the S&P 500 continues to go much higher.

At this point, you have to keep in mind that the markets will continue to be very noisy, therefore volatility racing higher could cause a bit of a selloff. Having said that, you cannot argue with price action, and it certainly looks like the buyers are trying to make a stand. Nonetheless, caution is the better part of valor, so I want to see either a breakout, or something along the lines of a shooting star that we can start selling.

There will be a direct correlation with rising rates and falling stocks, and of course vice versa as that’s been the only game in town for a while. That being said, Wall Street does not believe that Jerome Powell and company will continue to raise rates and tighten monetary policy. However, there is quite a few signs of credit issues out there, so therefore we are most certainly climbing a wall of worry at this point.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.