S&P 500: US Stocks Forecast Bullish Today as Hasbro Beats, Meme Favorites Surge, Tesla Eyed

U.S. Stocks Climb on Trump-Japan Trade Deal as Meme Stocks and Earnings Drive Volatility

Stocks opened higher Wednesday following a new U.S.-Japan trade agreement that sparked optimism for reduced tariffs and renewed foreign investment, while meme stock surges and earnings results injected fresh volatility into the market.

The Dow rose 240 points, or 0.6%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq adding 0.3% and 0.07%, respectively. The S&P 500 notched its 11th record close of the year Tuesday, continuing its climb above 6,300.

How Are Traders Positioning After the Trump-Japan Deal?

President Trump announced a “massive Deal” with Japan late Tuesday, securing 15% reciprocal tariffs and a $550 billion investment pledge from Tokyo. The deal, arriving just ahead of the August 1 deadline for broader trade measures, sparked a rally in autos and industrials. Mazda surged 16%, with Mitsubishi Motors, Toyota, and Honda all posting gains above 8%. Infrastructure and machinery names are expected to benefit from the incoming capital inflow, especially as 90% of profits are earmarked for U.S. firms.

Technology hardware and financials with Asia-Pacific exposure also saw tailwinds. Semiconductor and electronics companies could benefit from tariff clarity, while banks tied to regional trade may see increased capital flows. Currency strategists are now eyeing potential yen strength, should the Bank of Japan follow through with a rate hike later this year.

Which Earnings Surprises Are Moving Stocks?

Hasbro jumped 3% premarket after beating Q2 expectations with $1.30 EPS on $980.8 million revenue, driven by its Wizards division, but couldn’t hold on to those gains, reversing lower by 2.75%.

Capital One gained nearly 3% on strong interest income despite missing revenue estimates. Intuitive Surgical added 1% following robust demand for its surgical robots.

On the downside, Texas Instruments sank nearly 10% after issuing a weak Q3 forecast, even though Q2 results topped estimates. SAP fell 4.2% after missing revenue targets. AT&T and Enphase Energy also disappointed, falling 3% and 8%, respectively, despite AT&T’s strong subscriber numbers and Enphase’s earnings beat, which was offset by weak guidance due to tariffs.

Are Meme Stocks Back in Play for Retail Traders?

A new wave of retail-driven buying returned to the market, pushing GoPro up 63% and Krispy Kreme 33% in a single session. Both names met meme stock criteria—low float, high short interest, and nostalgic brand appeal. Kohl’s spiked 105% intraday before closing up 54%, while OpenDoor’s 400% July surge reversed sharply, dropping 10% after retail sentiment faded.

Retail traders are using systematic screens to spot setups, but rallies remain compressed and reversal risk is high. Institutional arbitrage is further accelerating these short-lived bursts.

What’s the Outlook as Earnings and Trade Risks Collide?

Short-term sentiment remains bullish, supported by strong liquidity, dovish Fed policy, and reduced trade overhang.

However, volatility is expected to persist as traders digest key earnings from Tesla and Alphabet after the bell. With the S&P 500 trading at 24.7x trailing earnings, valuations remain stretched.

Selectivity in both meme trades and sector positioning will be key as the market gauges further geopolitical developments and central bank signals.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.