Stock markets in America have been rather choppy over the last 30 days, as we are in the midst of earnings season, and of course there is a lot of speculation as to what the Federal Reserve is going to do.
The S&P 500 has rallied a bit during the trading week, as we continue to hang around a 200 point range. I don’t really see much changing in the short term, but the one thing that you can make from this chart is that every time we rally, there does seem to be a lot of resistance just above causing issues. With that being the case, it’s likely that the 200-Week EMA is attracting a little bit of attention as well, but it looks to me like the market is probably going to eventually break down, if for no other reason than the interest rates in America rising.
Earnings season is always a bit of a potluck of good and bad, but it’s been pretty brutal so far. With that being the case, I think some of the morons on Wall Street are betting on the Federal Reserve coming back into save everything because companies are starting to give poor forward guidance. However, as long as inflation is over 8%, there’s absolutely no chance of that happening. Nonetheless, it’s an entire generation of traders who have no idea what it’s like to trade in an environment where the Federal Reserve isn’t offering free money.
A breakdown below the 3500 level could open up the floodgates, but a break above the 3800 level could offer a nice selling opportunity above, maybe closer to the 4000 level. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will eventually sell off every attempt at a rally.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.