Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar Forecasts: GDP Data and Trade Headlines to Hit Sentiment

Japan GDP Revisions to Spotlight USD/JPY

On Monday, June 9, finalized Q1 GDP numbers from Japan will impact USD/JPY trends and the Bank of Japan’s policy stance. According to the preliminary GDP report, the economy contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) after expanding 0.6% in Q4 2025.

Notably, external demand fell 0.8% QoQ after rising 0.7% in the previous quarter. Private consumption, contributing over 50% to Japan’s GDP, stalled for the second consecutive quarter.

Positive revisions to private consumption and external demand could lead to an upward adjustment to headline GDP. Economic growth momentum, aligning with the BoJ’s growth forecasts, could revive Q3 2025 rate hike bets. A more hawkish BoJ rate stance may boost Japanese Yen demand, pressuring USD/JPY.

Conversely, weaker-than-preliminary numbers may lower expectations of a 2025 BoJ rate hike, weighing on Yen demand and potentially driving USD/JPY higher.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently kept rate hikes in play, supporting further moves if inflation and the economy align with projections.

Beyond the GDP, trade headlines continue dictating Yen appetite. Rising trade tensions may boost demand for safe-haven assets such as the Yen, pressuring USD/JPY. However, easing trade tensions could send the pair higher.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook: US Inflation Expectations in Focus

Later in the session, consumer inflation expectations could influence the Fed rate path. Economists expect consumer inflation expectations to rise 3.6% year-on-year in May, mirroring April’s trend.

A higher reading may further dampen expectations of a 2025 Fed rate cut, pushing USD/JPY toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A break above the 50-day EMA could bring the May 29 high of 146.285 into view.

Conversely, a softer print may revive hopes for a Fed rate cut, potentially dragging the pair toward 142.5, last week’s key support level.

USD/JPY: Key Scenarios to Watch

• Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: Rising trade tensions, upward revisions to GDP data, hawkish BoJ cues, or softer US data could push USD/JPY toward 142.5.
• Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Easing trade tensions, downward revisions to GDP data, dovish BoJ signals, or hotter US inflation may send the pair toward 146.285.

See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.

AUD/USD in Focus: China Stats to Drive Risk Sentiment

Meanwhile, economic indicators from China will influence AUD/USD trends, with inflation and trade data in focus. While inflation trends require consideration, reflecting consumption trends, trade data will likely have more impact.

China accounts for one-third of Aussie exports. Given Australia has a trade-to-GDP ratio above 50%, softer demand from China and slower global exports may impact the Aussie economy and the RBA rate path. A more dovish RBA stance could send AUD/USD toward $0.645 and the 200-day EMA. Conversely, better-than-expected trade data may push the pair above the June 5 high of $0.65377, bringing $0.6550 into sight.

In the recent RBA press conference, Governor Michele Bullock warned:

“Australia’s economy could easily be compromised if a trade war between the US and China escalates. Depending on where we end up on trade developments, there might be more interest rate adjustments. But for now, rates are in the right place.”

AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch

• Bearish Aussie dollar Scenario: Weak Chinese trade data or dovish RBA signals may push AUD/USD below $0.6450 toward the 200-day EMA.
• Bullish Aussie dollar Scenario: Upbeat Chinese data or hawkish RBA rhetoric could send the pair toward $0.6550.

Click here for a more comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights.

Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: US Consumer Inflation Expectations in Focus

Later today, US consumer inflation expectations could impact US-Aussie interest rate differentials and AUD/USD. A higher-than-expected reading would dampen Fed rate cut bets and widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential in favor of the US dollar. A wider rate differential may drag AUD/USD below $0.6450 toward the 200-day EMA.

Conversely, a softer print could narrow the rate differential and drive AUD/USD toward $0.6550.

Beyond the economic data, trade headlines will continue to influence price trends.

Key Market Drivers to Watch Today:

• USD/JPY: BoJ policy outlook, Japan GDP revisions, and trade developments.
• USD/JPY and AUD/USD: US inflation data and trade headlines.
• AUD/USD: China data, RBA policy signals, and China’s policy cues.

For more in-depth analysis, review today’s USD/JPY and AUD/USD trading setups in our latest reports and consult our economic calendar.