S&P500: Bulls in Control as Apple Crosses $4T and Fed Signals Awaited

Stocks Notch New Highs as Earnings and AI Optimism Fire Up Bulls

U.S. stocks climbed to fresh records Tuesday morning as traders responded to stronger-than-expected earnings, AI-driven headlines, and renewed hopes for Fed rate cuts. The S&P 500 tagged an intraday high above 6,800 before paring gains, last up 0.1%. The Dow rose 282 points, or 0.6%, while the Nasdaq added 0.2% as tech leaders firmed ahead of key earnings.

The rally came with several tailwinds: upbeat Q3 results, signs of softening inflation, and a rate-cut-friendly Fed setup. Traders leaned in — but with some caution, as gains pulled back slightly from the highs.

Is this earnings season strong enough to keep bulls in charge?

So far, yes. About a third of S&P 500 names have reported, and 83% have beat expectations. That’s enough to keep buyers engaged — at least for now. UPS jumped 7% after a clean beat, and Wayfair exploded 20% higher. PayPal surged 11% on solid numbers and a headline-grabbing partnership with OpenAI to embed its wallet in ChatGPT. That’s the kind of forward-looking deal that keeps the AI trade in focus.

But the real test comes next. Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft — the heavyweights that move the index — are all on deck. Together, they make up about 25% of the S&P’s total market cap. If even one slips, the market could wobble.

How are traders positioning around the Fed and economic data?

With the Fed kicking off its two-day meeting, rate cut hopes are back in play. Traders are looking for Chair Powell to signal another move in December — especially with signs of labor market weakness building. The twist: the government shutdown means the Fed is operating in a data blackout. So Powell’s tone will matter even more than usual.

Yields have pulled back a bit, helping growth names, but this rally isn’t being chased aggressively — not yet. Traders are keeping one eye on the Fed and the other on China, where Trump and Xi are slated to meet Thursday. Progress on trade and rare earths helped lift risk appetite Monday, and that optimism still lingers.

What’s the read on Apple and Microsoft’s $4 trillion milestones?

Apple crossed the $4T line for the first time, joining Microsoft, which reclaimed the level thanks to its 27% stake in OpenAI’s for-profit unit. Both stocks are firm into earnings — Apple up 25% in three months on strong iPhone 17 demand, and Microsoft up 6% with AI tailwinds in play.

Apple’s pivot away from China — shifting production to India and Vietnam — is also a plus. It’s not just about beating tariffs. It’s about telling a story Wall Street likes: resilient supply chains and stable margins.

Bottom line: If these two deliver, tech could have more room to run.

What’s the takeaway heading into the back half of the day?

Momentum is strong, but the market wants confirmation. Tech earnings will set the tone, and Powell’s press conference could shape expectations for December. With positioning leaning long and sentiment tilting bullish, any slip could invite profit-taking.

Watch the bond market. Watch Powell’s tone. And watch those mega-cap prints. Traders aren’t blindly buying the breakout — not with this much on the line.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.