Stocks: Potential Ukraine Peace Continues to Fuel Optimism

The S&P 500 Index went sideways on Thursday despite a surprisingly high PPI reading. The market closed just 0.03% higher, extending its consolidation around Wednesday’s record high of 6,480.28. Today, the S&P 500 is expected to open 0.1% higher after a slightly weaker-than-expected Retail Sales report.

Investor sentiment has further deteriorated, as reflected in the Wednesday’s AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which reported that 29.9% of individual investors are bullish, while 46.2% are bearish.

The S&P 500 continues to trade near its recent record high, as shown on the daily chart.

Nasdaq 100 Pulled Back from 24,000

The Nasdaq 100 closed 0.07% lower on Thursday, fluctuating around Wednesday’s record high of 23,969.28. It pulled back from the 24,000 level, suggesting this area may be acting as psychological resistance. On the downside, support is in the 23,500–23,600 range.

While there are no strong bearish signals yet, the recent price action may be forming a potential topping pattern.

VIX Remains Below 15

On Wednesday, the VIX (Volatility Index) dipped to a local low of 14.30 – its lowest level since late December — confirming reduced investor fear.

Recently, the decline in VIX reflected declining investor fear (declining gold prices indicate the same thing).

Historically, a dropping VIX indicates less fear in the market, and rising VIX accompanies stock market downturns. However, the lower the VIX, the higher the probability of the market’s downward reversal. Conversely, the higher the VIX, the higher the probability of the market’s upward reversal.

S&P 500 Futures Contract Reaches New All-Time High

This morning, the S&P 500 futures contract is trading slightly below the 6,500 level after reaching a new record high of around 6,509 earlier. It remains above its short-term upward trendline, currently near 6,470.

Market Outlook: Cautiously Bullish Again?

The S&P 500 is likely to open slightly higher this morning, but the focus will be on the Trump – Putin talks in Alaska. Markets will respond to any headlines from the event.

That said, no negative signals are evident, although a deeper correction at some point is not out of the question.

Here’s what I think is most likely:

• The S&P 500 remained near its record high despite yesterday’s surprisingly weak PPI data.
• My Volatility Breakout System flipped to a long position last week and is currently in profit.
• My long position in TSLA stock from mid-July remains profitable.

What This Means for Your Portfolio

For individual investors, this environment calls for careful position management. While the market continues to advance, the combination of low volatility, seasonal weakness signals, and stretched valuations suggests that defensive positioning may become increasingly important in the weeks ahead.

The current market conditions highlight the value of having a systematic approach to investing rather than trying to time every market move. Whether you’re using technical systems like the Volatility Breakout System or following seasonal patterns, having a disciplined framework becomes crucial during uncertain times.

Thank you for reading my today’s free analysis. To stay up-to-date with my following analyses and get other premium details, I encourage you to sign up for my free mailing list today.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist