Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Low-Volatility Range Holds – 10-Day Test Sets Up Break

Quiet Range Persists

Gold moved sideways for a fifth consecutive day on Thursday within a tight range, exhibiting low volatility while preserving its overall bullish structure. Buyers regained control after the session low of $4,175 — slightly above Tuesday’s dip and directly on the convergence of the 10-day average and a supporting trendline, highlighting the potential importance of that level.

First 10-Day Test Since Reclamation

Thursday marked the first genuine test of the 10-day average since it was reclaimed early last week. The successful defense, combined with the ongoing low-volatility consolidation after last Friday’s triangle breakout, suggests demand may be building for a near-term spike as the brief sideways phase nears completion.

Breakout Confirmation Levels

A rally above the three-day high of $4,241 would signal initial strength, but a decisive move and daily close above Monday’s $4,264 high is required for full confirmation and resumption of the advance that began from October’s swing low.

Measured Upside Objective

The immediate upside target remains $4,356, where the current second leg up from October matches the price gain of the first leg—creating symmetry that can act as a pivot or temporary resistance ahead of any push toward the $4,381 record high.

Broader Trend Support Intact

Gold stays comfortably above the 20-day average at $4,134, which has overlapped the primary uptrend line for weeks, reinforcing the dominant bullish outlook. The larger trend clearly points higher; the only question is whether demand accelerates enough for a fresh record high before a longer pause.

Historical Pattern Context

Previous recent pullbacks were resolved only after a six-to-nine-day sideways stretch. Thursday’s action fits that template and hints that the current coiling may be in its final stages.

Outlook

The clean defense of converging 10-day and trendline support keeps buyers in control and positions gold for an imminent breakout. Watch $4,241 first and $4,264 for confirmation; clearance there targets $4,356 minimum while the 20-day zone remains the ultimate backstop for the near-term bull case.

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