The Day Ahead: Futures Climb in Thinly Traded Holiday Market on Tariff Delay

Trump Postpones Tariffs, Futures Rally in Light Holiday Session

U.S. stock futures are trading sharply higher in a holiday-shortened Monday session after Donald Trump delayed the imposition of 50% tariffs on the European Union until July 9. The announcement eases immediate trade tensions that had pressured markets last week. Cash equity markets remain closed for Memorial Day, but futures action reflects renewed risk appetite heading into Tuesday’s open.

S&P 500 futures are up 1.3% to 5,892, Nasdaq-100 futures are gaining 1.45% to 21,278, and Dow futures are adding 1.14% to 42,151. This follows Friday’s tariff-driven pullback where the S&P 500 fell 0.67%, Dow dropped 0.61%, and Nasdaq lost 1%.

European equities are also rallying on the reprieve, with the Stoxx Europe 600 reversing Friday’s drop to trade up 0.7%. The euro is strengthening to a one-month high, while gold is easing off a two-week peak as safe-haven flows unwind slightly.

Investors Await Guidance from Nvidia

Nvidia (NVDA) reports first-quarter earnings midweek, a key event for market direction. The stock, down 3% last week after a 16% prior rally, faces pressure from lost China revenue tied to U.S. chip export restrictions. Bank of America expects a modest beat but warns of “messy” guidance, with gross margins likely falling to 58% from a previously guided 71% due to a $5.5 billion write-down. Investor focus is on Blackwell platform updates and signals of a China recovery via compliant chips.

Apple (AAPL) is under continued pressure. The stock fell for an eighth straight session Friday, closing down 3% and off 8% for May. Trump’s floated 25% tariff on overseas iPhone imports adds headline risk. Analysts maintain a long-term bullish view based on Apple’s ecosystem strength but flag short-term risks tied to AI positioning. June 9’s WWDC is the next key inflection point.

Commodities and Bonds:  Gold Rally Fizzles

Gold is pulling back from Friday’s rally but remains well-supported amid ongoing policy risk and dollar weakness. Citi has lifted its 0–3 month gold target to $3,500/oz. U.S. Treasuries are closed for the holiday, but yields and inflation expectations are in focus ahead of Friday’s PCE report.

Technical Outlook: Futures Strengthen on Bullish Reboun

S&P 500 futures are attempting to reclaim the 200-day moving average at 5,890.25. Overcoming this indicator could fuel a surge into the 5993.50 main top. A failure to do so will make the market vulnerable to a steep plunge with the 50-day moving average at $5619.70 the next major target.

Nasdaq-100 futuresare holding above the 200-day SMA at 20,774.81. The current move appears to be short-covering. However, if buyers emerge on Tuesday then look for strong momentum to extend into the recent top at 21562.25.

Dow futures are trying to build on a technical bounce, following a successful test of the 50-day moving average at 42,230.80 on Friday. Today’s spike higher on thin-volume suggests short-covering is behind the move. If upside momentum continues to build throughout the week, then look for the move to extend into the 200-day moving average at 43,087.

Tariff Reprieve Sets Bullish Tone for Tuesday’s Open

Trump’s tariff delay has stabilized markets for now, but focus shifts quickly to Nvidia’s earnings and Friday’s PCE inflation data. Trade-sensitive sectors and megacaps remain vulnerable to headline volatility. A sustained break above key resistance levels across major indexes would confirm renewed bullish sentiment.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.