The Day Ahead: Markets Brace for Today’s Fed Minutes, Oil Data, Tariff Risks

Market Overview

U.S. stock futures are little changed early Wednesday as traders monitor additional tariff developments from President Trump.

Dow futures rise 23 points (0.05%), S&P 500 futures add 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are flat.

Tuesday’s session was cautious, with the S&P 500 down 0.07%, Nasdaq up 0.03%, and Dow off 0.4% following Trump’s new 25%–40% tariffs on 14 countries effective August 1.

Trump reiterated there will be no extensions, announced a 50% levy on copper imports, and hinted at potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals within 12–18 months. Traders remain focused on additional sector-specific levies, with Global X’s Scott Helfstein noting persistent trade policy volatility as markets recalibrate inflation risk and supply chain disruptions.

Key Economic Releases

At 1400 GMT, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m will be released (forecast -0.2%, previous -0.3%), providing insight into Q2 GDP tracking.

At 1430 GMT, the EIA Crude Oil Inventories report is expected, with a forecast draw of -1.7M barrels vs. last week’s +3.8M build, following API data showing a 7.1M build while refined products fell.

At 1701 GMT, the 10-year Bond Auction will proceed, with the prior yield at 2.5% and current indicative yield near 4.42%, reflecting tightening financial conditions.

Central Bank Activity

At 1800 GMT, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released, closely watched for clues on rate path amid trade uncertainties.

Deutsche Bank’s Amy Yang notes a Fed split: dovish members focusing on labor market downside risks despite potential tariff-driven inflation, hawkish members preferring to wait for data confirmation, and Powell maintaining a middle-ground stance.

The September meeting is seen as the earliest “live” cut unless labor data weakens sharply, with market pricing for a potential cut before December rising as trade tensions persist.

Notable Earnings

No major pre-market reports are scheduled. Post-close, AZZ (AZZ) is set to report, with consensus at $1.58 per share.

Commodities, Crypto, and Bonds

Gold hovers near a one-week low under pressure from a firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields as fresh tariff threats unsettle markets. The NY Fed’s survey shows one-year inflation expectations easing to 3% from 3.2%, with three- and five-year expectations steady at 3% and 2.6%.

Copper futures surged over 12% to record highs on Trump’s 50% tariff announcement, while SHFE and LME prices retreated as arbitrage closed.

Oil prices ease from two-week highs as traders await tariff clarity and potential OPEC+ output hikes, while EIA data will confirm if the recent large API-reported build is sustained.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES): Trading at 6274.25, near the recent high of 6333.25. Immediate resistance remains at 6333.25. Supports below are 6127.00 and 5959.00, with the 200-day SMA at 5986.1 followed by the 50-day SMA at 5995.1 providing layered support if momentum fades.

Dow E-mini Futures (YM): Trading at 44,561, below the 45,177 high. Immediate resistance is 45,177. Supports below are the 200-day SMA at 43,531, the 50-day SMA at 42,811.4, followed by 42,088 and 41,552. This layered structure offers clear downside markers while the trend remains intact.

Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures (NQ): Trading at 22,916.75 after a recent high of 23,102.50. Immediate resistance is 23,102.50. Supports are 21,566.75 and 20,943.50, with the 200-day SMA at 21,276.7 followed by the 50-day SMA at 21,659.4 acting as layered downside supports should momentum soften near highs.

Outlook

Tariff developments and FOMC minutes remain key drivers, with traders monitoring potential sector-specific levies and Fed language for policy direction.

Wholesale inventories and EIA crude data will influence GDP tracking and energy sentiment intraday.

Expect choppy trade around tariff headlines and Fed positioning as markets gauge the timing of potential rate cuts amid persistent trade-driven risks.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.