The Day Ahead: Markets Focus on Economic Data, Netflix Momentum Today

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures were little changed early Thursday after a rebound session driven by President Trump denying reports he intends to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Futures on the Dow slipped 0.09%, S&P 500 futures added 0.03%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.15%.

On Wednesday, the Dow gained 231.49 points (+0.53%), the S&P 500 added 0.32%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.26%. The session reversed early losses tied to concerns over Fed leadership, with equities recovering sharply after Trump clarified he was “not planning on doing it” despite not ruling it out entirely. Market sentiment appears to have shifted focus back toward earnings season.

Netflix (NFLX) also drew attention after a bullish analyst note cited strong subscriber growth and pricing power. Wedbush reiterated its Outperform rating with a $1,400 target, forecasting Q2 EPS of $7.18 on revenue of $11.16B vs. consensus $7.06 on $11.04B. With subscriber gains exceeding 41 million in 2024 and global churn contained despite price hikes, expectations are rising ahead of its report. Netflix reports after the close today.

Key Economic Releases

At 12:30 GMT, several high-impact data points are scheduled:

• Core Retail Sales m/m: Forecast +0.3% vs. -0.3% prior.
• Retail Sales m/m: Forecast +0.1% vs. -0.9% prior.
• Unemployment Claims: Forecast 233K vs. 227K prior.
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Forecast -1.2 vs. -4.0 prior.
• Import Prices m/m: Forecast +0.3% vs. 0.0% prior.

At 14:00 GMT:

• Business Inventories m/m: Forecast 0.0%.
• NAHB Housing Market Index: Forecast 33 vs. 32 prior.

Later Fed speak includes Kugler (14:00 GMT), Daly (16:45 GMT), Cook (17:30 GMT), and Waller (22:30 GMT). These data points and speeches will help shape short-term Fed rate expectations, especially if retail sales surprise to the upside.

Notable Earnings

Before the open:

• Abbott Labs (ABT): $1.25
• Cintas (CTAS): $1.07
• Citizens Financial Group (CFG): $0.88
• Elevance Health (ELV): $9.16
• Fifth Third (FITB): $0.87
• Forestar (FOR): $0.76
• GE Aerospace (GE): $1.40
• Insteel Industries (IIIN): $0.69
• Manpower (MAN): $0.68
• Marsh McLennan (MMC): $2.68
• OFG Bancorp (OFG): $1.05
• PepsiCo (PEP): $2.03
• Snap-On (SNA): $4.63
• Texas Capital (TCBI): $1.28
• Travelers (TRV): $3.49
• U.S. Bancorp (USB): $1.07
• Webster Financial (WBS): $1.43

After the close:

• Bank OZK (OZK): $1.53
• F.N.B. (FNB): $0.34
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR): $0.46
• Simmons First National (SFNC): $0.39
• Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL): $2.03
• Netflix (NFLX): $7.09

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 E-mini Futures last traded at 6,310.25, holding just below its recent high of 6,343.00. Resistance levels are at 6,343.00 and the psychological 6,400 area. Support levels are at 6,071.60 (50-day moving average) and 5,996.60 (200-day moving average).

The Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures last traded at 23,115.75. Resistance stands at 23,222.75 with a breakout target near 23,400. Support levels are at 22,022.40 (50-day moving average) and 21,341.86 (200-day moving average).

The Dow Jones E-mini Futures last traded at 44,447.00. Resistance is located at 45,043.00 and 45,177.00. Support levels are at 43,559.00 (200-day moving average) and 43,215.70 (50-day moving average).

Outlook

Equity markets look to hold steady after Wednesday’s rebound, with Powell-related concerns likely to fade in the near term. Today’s focus will shift to a packed earnings slate and economic data, particularly retail sales and unemployment claims.

Strong prints could reignite Fed rate hike bets. With several Fed speakers on deck, traders should stay alert for policy signals. Broader sentiment hinges on earnings momentum and data surprises.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.