The Day Ahead: Markets Rally Today on Nvidia Earnings and Tariff Reversal News

Futures Soar on Tariff Relief and Nvidia Boost

U.S. equity futures signal a strong open Thursday as markets cheer two major catalysts: a federal court ruling halting former President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs and a bullish earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA). Dow futures surged over 600 points (+1.42%), S&P 500 futures gained 1.66%, and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 2%.

Wednesday’s session saw weakness, with the S&P 500 down 0.6%, Dow off 245 points, and Nasdaq lower by 0.5%. Still, indexes remain on track for weekly and monthly gains, with the Nasdaq up 9.5% month-to-date, driven by AI momentum.

In pre-market trade, Nvidia is up nearly 5% after a strong earnings beat. Salesforce (CRM) and Veeva Systems (VEEV) also trade higher following upbeat results, while HP (HPQ) tumbles 15% on weak guidance. C3.ai (AI) is up 14% and Agilent Technologies (A) gains 6%. On the downside, SentinelOne (S) is off over 11%, and Pure Storage (PSTG) trades lower despite reaffirming guidance.

Key Economic Reports To Watch

At 12:30 GMT, traders will focus on the second estimate of Q1 U.S. GDP. The forecast holds at a 0.3% contraction, matching the initial reading. The GDP Price Index is also expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.

Weekly jobless claims, also due at 12:30 GMT, are forecast to tick up slightly to 229,000 from the prior week’s 227,000, signaling continued but modest softening in the labor market.

At 14:00 GMT, April pending home sales are projected to fall 0.9%, a sharp reversal from March’s +6.1% gain. This data could weigh on housing-sensitive equities if it confirms renewed weakness in contract activity.

Fed Speakers On Deck Throughout The Day

Market participants will listen closely to several Fed officials today:

• Thomas Barkin (Richmond) – 12:30 GMT
• Austan Goolsbee (Chicago) – 14:40 GMT
• Mary Daly (San Francisco) – 20:00 GMT
• Lorie Logan (Dallas) – 00:25 GMT (Friday)

Comments on inflation, growth risks, or policy timing could shift rate expectations intraday.

Earnings On Deck: Retailers In Focus

Before the Open:

• Best Buy (BBY): Est. EPS $1.09
• Bath & Body Works (BBWI): Est. EPS $0.42
• Burlington Stores (BURL): Est. EPS $1.43
• Kohl’s (KSS): Est. loss of $0.25
• Hormel Foods (HRL): Est. EPS $0.34
• Li Auto (LI): Est. EPS $1.06
• Foot Locker (FL): Est. loss of $0.05
• American Woodmark (AMWD): Est. EPS $1.44

After the Close:

• Costco Wholesale (COST): Analysts expect EPS of $4.24 on revenue of $63.1 billion. Analysts highlight its low import exposure and value model as strengths amid trade and rate uncertainty.

Gold Slips as Safe-Haven Demand Softens

Gold prices dipped to a one-week low, down 0.6% to $3,271.17/oz, pressured by a stronger dollar following the tariff ruling. The dollar’s strength and improving risk sentiment have dulled gold’s appeal, though long-term inflation concerns may keep a floor under the metal.

Technical Setup: Indices Eye Breakout Zones

• S&P 500 futures have broken out above 5,993.50, turning that level into near-term support. The next upside target is the March high near 6,236.50, with the breakout supported by rising momentum above the 50- and 200-day SMAs.

• Nasdaq 100 futures have also pushed past the 21,562.25 resistance level. The next resistance lies at the March peak near 22,656.75, with support now at 21,562 and 20,798 (200-day SMA). This breakout reaffirms strong tech-led momentum.

• Dow Jones futures are pushing toward resistance at 42,763; holding above the 200-day SMA (43,105) would be constructive, while 41,250 and 41,236 are key downside levels to watch.

Bullish Bias Into the Open

With futures elevated and AI names leading pre-market action, the cash market is poised to open with a strong bullish bias. Relief over tariff uncertainty and strength in key tech names are in focus. Economic data and Fed commentary pose the primary risks to sustaining momentum through the session.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.