The Day Ahead: Markets Today Eye Payrolls, ISM Services Data Before Holiday Closure

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are little changed early Thursday as traders await the June jobs report. S&P 500 futures are fractionally higher, Nasdaq 100 futures are near flat, and Dow futures are up by 29 points.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.47% to a record close with a fresh intraday high, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.94% to a record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.02%.

Sentiment was supported by the U.S.–Vietnam trade deal imposing a 20% tariff on imports and 40% on transshipped goods, while a weaker ADP report showing private hiring fell by 33,000 last month tempered gains.

Today’s trade will center on June payroll data and Fed cut implications into a holiday-shortened session.

Key Economic Releases

12:30 GMT – Average Hourly Earnings (Jun): expected +0.3% (prior +0.4%)
12:30 GMT – Non-Farm Employment Change (Jun): expected +111K (prior +139K)
12:30 GMT – Unemployment Rate (Jun): expected 4.3% (prior 4.2%)
12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims: expected 240K (prior 236K)
12:30 GMT – Trade Balance: expected -69.9B (prior -61.6B)
13:45 GMT – Final Services PMI: expected 53.1 (prior 53.1)
14:00 GMT – ISM Services PMI: expected 50.8 (prior 49.9)
14:00 GMT – Factory Orders m/m: expected +8.1% (prior -3.7%)
14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage: expected +48B (prior +96B)
15:00 GMT – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

The June payroll report will remain the key directional driver, while ISM Services PMI and Factory Orders will provide additional clarity on services and manufacturing momentum into Q3. Bostic’s comments may offer insight on Fed rate cut timing post-data.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 Index Futures

Last price: 6280.00
Resistance: 6288.75
Support: 5959.00, 5808.75, 5648.25

Futures remain in a firm uptrend above the 50-SMA at 5950.1 and the 200-SMA at 5980.26. A clean breakout above 6288.75 would confirm momentum continuation, while holding 5959.00 preserves the bullish structure.

Nasdaq 100 Index Futures

Last price: 22880.50
Resistance: 22934.75
Support: 21566.75, 20943.50

Nasdaq futures are consolidating near resistance, with the 50-SMA at 21448.0 and the 200-SMA at 21239.8 providing rising support. Structure remains bullish into the jobs data.

Dow Jones Index Futures

Last price: 44796
Resistance: 46326
Support: 42088, 41552

Dow futures are holding near highs, above the 50-SMA at 42555.1 and the 200-SMA at 43510. A clear move above 46326 would open momentum continuation for buyers.

Outlook

Today’s session will be driven by the June jobs report, providing the last critical catalyst before Friday’s market closure for Independence Day.

A weaker print could fuel rate cut hopes and support tech, while a strong print may prompt rotation toward value sectors amid high short interest in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100.

Reduced liquidity from the half-day session will require disciplined positioning around key support and resistance levels across index futures.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.