The Insights into Exotic Pairs: the MXN

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We anticipate the end of the week to bring more volatility to the MXN.

At first, the USMCA agreement will be signed during the G20 summit. Canada and Mexico hope the US will drop its steel and aluminum tariffs. However, according to analysts, the US can impose quotas instead of tariffs, which will not be welcomed by Canada and Mexico.  If the further uncertainties, appear, the MXN can slip. In addition, AMLO and his administration will take the cabinet on Saturday. His new reforms have already shaken the market.

In addition, the upcoming finance minister Carlos Urzua announced a nomination of the new central bank deputy governor Gerardo Esquivel on Monday. The Tuesday’s comments made by Mr.Urzua about a larger primary budget surplus next year increased the investors’ confidence.

USD/MXN reached its July highs on Monday, closing above the 20.5 level. The negative news about further policy actions by president-elect will help the pair to rise towards the resistance at 20.70.  Otherwise, the successful USMCA deal and hawkish comments by the new administration will pull the pair downwards to the support at 20.06.

To conclude with, the strength of the Mexican peso is heavily depended on the policy decisions by the upcoming administration. If Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador gets on well with US president Donald Trump and make supportive reforms for the economy, we can expect the peso to recover.