The Week Ahead: Fed Signals, Nvidia Earnings, and PCE Data to Guide Markets

Market Overview

U.S. equities closed mixed last week as investors digested the Fed’s Jackson Hole update and a wave of retail earnings. The S&P 500 ended up 0.27% to 6,466.91, while the Dow gained 1.53% to close at 45,631.75, breaking above key resistance at 45,073.63. The Nasdaq lagged, slipping 0.58% to 21,496.53 on underperformance in mega-cap tech.

The central focus this week is the Fed’s evolving policy stance. Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech confirmed a growing willingness to cut rates, citing softening labor market signals and the potential for a temporary uptick in inflation. Markets responded with a rally in rate-sensitive sectors and a surge in rate-cut expectations for the September FOMC.

Beneath the surface, rotation was evident—value and cyclicals outperformed, while mega-cap tech paused. Nvidia (NVDA), up more than 30% this year, has been the key driver of AI-linked gains and Nasdaq performance. Its earnings Wednesday will be a focal point for traders given its dominant role in the semiconductor sector and broader tech leadership.

Retail earnings from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot pointed to a still-resilient consumer, with some margin pressures tied to tariffs. Together with Powell’s tone, these reports reinforced the message that the consumer remains steady, but inflation and cost pressures still linger.

The macro backdrop remains defined by two crosscurrents: early signs of labor market cooling and the Fed’s data-dependent easing bias. This week’s data, combined with Nvidia’s results, will sharpen expectations heading into the September decision and help set the tone for tech into month-end.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday (8/25)

• PDD (PDD): est. $15.53, before the open

• HEICO (HEI): est. $1.13, after the close

Semtech (SMTC): est. $0.40, after the close

14:00 GMT: New Home Sales – cons. 635K, prev. 627K

19:15 GMT: Fed’s Logan speaks

23:15 GMT: Fed’s Williams speaks

Tuesday (8/26)

• Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS): est. $1.26, before the open

• KE Holdings (BEKE): est. $1.52, before the open

• Box (BOX): est. $0.31, after the close

• MongoDB (MDB): est. $0.67, after the close

• nCino (NCNO): est. $0.14, after the close

• Okta (OKTA): est. $0.84, after the close

• PVH (PVH): est. $2.00, after the close

• 12:30 GMT: Core Durable Goods Orders – cons. 0.3%, prev. 0.2%

• 12:30 GMT: Durable Goods Orders – cons. -3.8%, prev. -9.4%

• 13:00 GMT: HPI m/m – cons. 0.0%, prev. -0.2%

• 13:00 GMT: S&P/CS 20 HPI y/y – cons. 2.9%, prev. 2.8%

• 14:00 GMT: CB Consumer Confidence – cons. 96.3, prev. 97.2

• 14:00 GMT: Richmond Fed Index – cons. -17, prev. -20

Wednesday (8/27)

• Royal Bank of Canada (RY): est. $2.41, before the open

• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): est. $2.28, before the open

• Bank of Montreal (BMO): est. $2.17, before the open

• Nvidia (NVDA): est. $1.00, after the close ← Key focus

• Plus 13 other reports including CRWD, HPQ, SNOW, URBN

• 14:30 GMT: Crude Inventories – prev. -6.0M

• 15:45 GMT: Fed’s Barkin speaks

Thursday (8/28)

• 13 reports before the open including BBY, DG, HRL, TD

• 11 reports after the close including ADSK, DELL, ULTA, GAP, MRVL

• 12:30 GMT: GDP q/q – cons. 3.1%, prev. 3.0%

• 12:30 GMT: Jobless Claims – cons. 231K, prev. 235K

• 12:30 GMT: GDP Price Index – cons. 2.0%, prev. 2.0%

• 14:00 GMT: Pending Home Sales – cons. -0.3%, prev. -0.8%

• 14:30 GMT: Nat Gas Storage – prev. +13B

• 22:00 GMT: Fed’s Waller speaks

Friday (8/29)

• Alibaba (BABA): est. $15.52

• 12:30 GMT: Core PCE – cons. 0.3%, prev. 0.3%

• 12:30 GMT: Trade Balance – cons. -90.7B, prev. -84.9B

• 12:30 GMT: Personal Income – cons. 0.4%, prev. 0.3%

• 12:30 GMT: Personal Spending – cons. 0.5%, prev. 0.3%

• 12:30 GMT: Wholesale Inventories – cons. 0.2%, prev. 0.1%

• 13:45 GMT: Chicago PMI – cons. 46.1, prev. 47.1

• 14:00 GMT: UoM Sentiment – cons. 58.6, prev. 58.6

Central Bank Activity

• Monday: Logan (19:15 GMT), Williams (23:15 GMT)

• Tuesday: Barkin

• Wednesday: Barkin (15:45 GMT)

• Thursday: Waller (22:00 GMT)

Speeches from Logan, Williams, Barkin, and Waller follow Powell’s dovish tone. Traders will watch closely for reinforcement of a September cut bias.

Technical Outlook

• Dow closed 45,631.75 (+1.53%), breaking above resistance at 45,073.63; support at 43,340.68; 52W SMA rising at 42,827.66.

• Nasdaq closed 21,496.53 (-0.58%), with resistance at 21,803.75; support at 20,560.17; 52W SMA at 19,002.83.

• S&P 500 ended at 6,466.91 (+0.27%), holding near resistance at 6,481.34; support at 6,212.69; 52W SMA at 5,900.53.

All three indices remain above key moving averages, with the structure still bullish.

Outlook

With the Fed signaling a potential shift in policy and markets now pricing in a high probability of a September cut, this week’s data slate—especially Core PCE and GDP—will be critical for confirming the easing bias.

At the same time, Nvidia’s results will be pivotal for the Nasdaq and broader tech sector. Strong delivery on AI and data center growth could reassert tech leadership, while any disappointment would weigh on sentiment in a market heavily reliant on mega-cap performance.

Equity momentum remains intact, though a crowded earnings calendar and rising inflation prints could spark volatility. Retail earnings highlighted consumer resilience, but tariff-driven cost pressures linger. Fed commentary and Nvidia’s update stand out as the twin drivers for traders positioning around the next move.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.