Market Overview
U.S. stocks finished higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,654.95, up 0.93%. The Nasdaq Composite settled at 27,366.17, up 0.64%, and the S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54, up 1.15%.
Inflation and interest rates remain the main macro issue. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023. September CPI arrives before the October 27-28 meeting, and hotter data could revive October rate-hike expectations.
Third-quarter earnings begin with JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs on Tuesday. S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise more than 30% in the third quarter. The bank reports will show traders how higher rates and energy costs are reaching consumers and capital markets.
CPI is the main event on Wednesday. Headline inflation is forecast to rise to 3.6% year over year from 3.4%, while monthly CPI is expected at 0.6% versus 0.4%. A hotter report could bring October rate-hike expectations back, putting the stock market rally and bank earnings under a tougher test.
Key Economic Releases & Notable Earnings
Monday, October 12
Earnings Before the Open
No reports scheduled
Economic Releases
U.S. Bank and Bond Market Holiday; stock market open.
IMF Meetings, Day 1.
Earnings After the Close
No reports scheduled
Tuesday, October 13
Earnings Before the Open
Albertsons (ACI), $0.33 per share.
Citigroup (C), $2.65 per share.
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), $4.36 per share.
Goldman Sachs (GS), $13.04 per share.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM), $5.93 per share.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), $2.51 per share.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH), $4.12 per share.
Wells Fargo (WFC), $1.85 per share.
Economic Releases
10:00 GMT, NFIB Small Business Index, forecast 98.0 (prior 98.7).
12:15 GMT, ADP Weekly Employment Change, prior 23.8K.
14:00 GMT, Existing Home Sales, forecast 3.96M (prior 3.98M).
IMF Meetings, Day 2.
Earnings After the Close
AZZ (AZZ), $1.86 per share.
Wednesday, October 14
Earnings Before the Open
ASML (ASML), $12.07 per share.
Bank of America (BAC), $1.10 per share.
BlackRock (BLK), $14.30 per share.
Fastenal (FAST), $0.34 per share.
Morgan Stanley (MS), $2.93 per share.
Progressive (PGR), $4.30 per share.
State Street (STT), $3.68 per share.
Economic Releases
12:30 GMT, Core CPI m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.3%).
12:30 GMT, Core CPI y/y, forecast 2.5% (prior 2.4%).
12:30 GMT, CPI m/m, forecast 0.6% (prior 0.4%).
12:30 GMT, CPI y/y, forecast 3.6% (prior 3.4%).
18:00 GMT, Beige Book.
20:30 GMT, API Weekly Statistical Bulletin.
IMF Meetings, Day 3.
Earnings After the Close
Home Bancshares (HOMB), $0.64 per share.
Thursday, October 15
Earnings Before the Open
BNY Mellon (BNY), $2.27 per share.
Charles Schwab (SCHW), $1.66 per share.
Commercial Metals (CMC), $1.95 per share.
First Horizon (FHN), $0.52 per share.
Manpower (MAN), $1.01 per share.
Marsh McLennan (MRSH), $1.97 per share.
PNC (PNC), $4.91 per share.
Prologis (PLD), $1.57 per share.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), $4.48 per share.
U.S. Bancorp (USB), $1.32 per share.
Economic Releases
12:30 GMT, Core PPI m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.2%).
12:30 GMT, Core Retail Sales m/m, forecast 0.5% (prior 1.4%).
12:30 GMT, PPI m/m, forecast 0.5% (prior 0.4%).
12:30 GMT, Retail Sales m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 1.2%).
12:30 GMT, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, forecast 26.5 (prior 37.8).
12:30 GMT, Unemployment Claims, forecast 195K (prior 197K).
12:30 GMT, Empire State Manufacturing Index, forecast 3.2 (prior 7.6).
14:00 GMT, Business Inventories m/m, forecast 0.4% (prior 0.8%).
14:30 GMT, Natural Gas Storage, prior 85B.
16:00 GMT, Crude Oil Inventories, prior -3.2M.
IMF Meetings, Day 4.
Earnings After the Close
Alcoa (AA), $1.52 per share.
Interactive Brokers (IBKR), $0.67 per share.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), $1.83 per share.
Simmons First National (SFNC), $0.54 per share.
Friday, October 16
Earnings Before the Open
Citizens Financial Group (CFG), $1.39 per share.
M&T Bank (MTB), $4.93 per share.
Regions Financial (RF), $0.66 per share.
Travelers (TRV), $7.23 per share.
Truist (TFC), $1.14 per share.
Economic Releases
12:30 GMT, Import Prices m/m, forecast 0.6% (prior 0.7%).
13:15 GMT, Capacity Utilization Rate, forecast 76.5% (prior 76.3%).
13:15 GMT, Industrial Production m/m, forecast 0.4% (prior 0.0%).
Tentative, Federal Budget Balance, forecast 75.3B (prior -166.8B).
20:00 GMT, TIC Long-Term Purchases, forecast 125.7B (prior -27.9B).
IMF Meetings, Day 5.
Earnings After the Close
No reports scheduled
Dow Jones Price Forecast
Every new Dow Jones analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Dow Jones forecastsCentral Bank Activity
Monday, October 12
Hammack (FOMC Member), 16:10 GMT.
Tuesday, October 13
Waller (FOMC Member), 07:45 GMT.
Barkin (FOMC Member), 17:00 GMT.
Collins (FOMC Member), 20:00 GMT.
Wednesday, October 14
Bowman (FOMC Member), 09:40 GMT.
Barkin (FOMC Member), 17:30 GMT.
Beige Book, 18:00 GMT.
Thursday, October 15
Bowman (FOMC Member), 02:55 GMT.
Hammack (FOMC Member), 20:30 GMT.
Friday, October 16
Fed Chairman Warsh, 03:30 GMT.
Traders will watch the speakers, Beige Book and CPI for clues on whether the Fed raises rates again in October or waits until December.
Technical Outlook
Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Dow Jones: 51,654.95 (+0.93%), Support at 49,900.81, the 52-week SMA at 49,773.56, 48,757.73 and 45,057.28. Resistance at 52,645.44, 53,140.77 and 54,744.33.
Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index
Nasdaq: 27,366.17 (+0.64%), Support at 25,802.96, the 52-week SMA at 24,496.42, 24,425.34 and 20,690.25. Resistance at 27,722.75.
Weekly S&P 500 Index
S&P 500: 7,811.54 (+1.15%), Support at 7,676.15, 7,579.22, 7,541.19, 7,507.77, 7,313.92, 7,237.85, the 52-week SMA at 7,157.69. Resistance at 7844.52.
All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact long-term uptrend.
Outlook
Wednesday’s CPI report is the first real test. Headline CPI is forecast to rise 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4%, with monthly inflation expected at 0.6% versus 0.4%. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs report Tuesday, followed by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. PPI and retail sales on Thursday will tell traders whether inflation pressure is reaching consumers and businesses.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq start the week near record highs, while the Dow is trying to recover from its recent break. Inflation that comes in at or below expectations, along with solid bank results, would keep buyers in control. A hotter CPI report or weak bank guidance would put S&P 500 support at 7,662.24, Nasdaq support at 25,802.96 and Dow support at 49,900.81 under pressure.
