The Week Ahead: Markets Brace for PCE Inflation Data, Fed Minutes and NVIDIA Earnings

Market Overview

The U.S. stock market saw a pullback last week, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones all retreating. Key concerns driving the retreat included the renewed focus on the U.S. budget deficit, rising bond yields, and increasing tariffs.

The S&P 500 lost 2.6% while the Nasdaq dropped 2.5%, marking a significant decline after months of solid gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week 2.3% lower.

Despite the optimism in previous weeks, fiscal concerns—highlighted by a downgrade of U.S. government debt and ongoing tariff talks—began to cloud sentiment.

Key Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Tuesday, May 27

• Economic Releases:
  • Durable Goods (April) at 12:30 GMT.
  • Consumer Confidence Index (May) at 15:00 GMT.
  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks at 12:00 GMT.
• Earnings Reports:
  • AutoZone (AZO): Expected EPS of $37.10.
  • Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS): Expected EPS of $1.11.
  • Skyline Champion (SKY): Expected EPS of $0.76.
  • Box (BOX): Expected EPS of $0.26.
  • Okta (OKTA): Expected EPS of $0.77.
  • Semtech (SMTC): Expected EPS of $0.37.
  • Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM): Expected EPS of $0.58.

Wednesday, May 28

• Economic Releases:
  • FOMC Minutes (May) at 18:00 GMT.
  • GDP (Q1, second reading) at 12:30 GMT, with a potential further decline.
  • Pending Home Sales (April) at 15:00 GMT.
• Earnings Reports:
  • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): Expected EPS of $1.37.
  • Bank of Montreal (BMO): Expected EPS of $1.81.
  • Capri Holdings (CPRI): Expected loss of $0.13.
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS): Expected EPS of $4.32.
  • Macy’s (M): Expected EPS of $0.15.
  • Photronics (PLAB): Expected EPS of $0.48.
  • Nvidia (NVDA): Expected EPS of $0.73 (+19.7% YoY), revenue of $43.2B (+66.2% YoY).
  • Salesforce (CRM): Expected EPS of $2.55 (+4.5% YoY), revenue of $9.7B (+6.6% YoY).

Thursday, May 29

• Economic Releases:
  • PCE & Core PCE (April) at 12:30 GMT, a key measure of inflation.
  • Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 GMT.
• Earnings Reports:
  • American Woodmark (AMWD): Expected EPS of $1.44.
  • Best Buy (BBY): Expected EPS of $1.09.
  • Burlington Stores (BURL): Expected EPS of $1.43.
  • Costco Wholesale (COST): Expected EPS of $4.24 (+12.2% YoY), revenue of $63.1B (+7.8% YoY).
  • Hormel Foods (HRL): Expected EPS of $0.34.
  • Kohl’s (KSS): Expected loss of $0.25.

Friday, May 30

• Economic Releases:
  • Personal Income and Spending (April) at 12:30 GMT.
  • Wholesale Inventories (April) at 12:30 GMT.
  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (revised) at 15:00 GMT.
• Earnings Reports:
  • Shoe Carnival (SCVL): Expected EPS of $0.30.

Central Bank Activity

• Fed Minutes (May): Scheduled for release Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, these will provide further context on the Fed’s rate-cut expectations.
• Various Fed Officials’ Speeches: Including Neel Kashkari, John Williams, and Christopher Waller throughout the week. These will be key for any updates on the Fed’s stance on monetary policy.

Technical Outlook

The Nasdaq is approaching critical support levels near 18,318 (SMA 50), as shown in the chart. If the index holds above this level, it may find short-term stabilization. If it breaks, we could see further downside targeting the next support level around 17,800.

The S&P 500 similarly is near the 5,728 support zone, with the possibility of testing the 5,200 level if bearish momentum continues.

The Dow closed at 41,600, below the 50-week moving average at 41,903, and if downside momentum persists, the 200-week moving average at 36,419 could come into play.

Outlook

With rising bond yields, fiscal concerns, and upcoming economic reports, traders should remain cautious. The key drivers this week will be inflation data (PCE), GDP revisions, and guidance from major tech earnings such as Nvidia and Salesforce.

Risk is skewed to the downside, especially if fiscal or tariff concerns escalate further, but the market will be closely watching the economic data and central bank commentary for any signs of stability.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.