The Week Ahead: Markets Eye Fed Signals, AI Earnings, and Key Jobs Data

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures were steady early Monday, with S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.26%, and Dow futures rising 0.1% as investors entered November with confidence.

October closed on solid gains, with the S&P 500 advancing 2.3%, the Dow up 2.5%, and the Nasdaq gaining 4.7%, supported by strong corporate earnings and renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence.

Optimism has been underpinned by more than 300 S&P 500 firms reporting results, with over 80% beating expectations. Amazon’s strong quarter and continued AI momentum helped offset concerns over rate policy and government gridlock. The Fed’s decision last week to cut rates for a second time this year—bringing the fed funds range to 3.75%–4.00%—was tempered by Chair Powell’s message that a December cut is not guaranteed.

Markets also welcomed signs of thawing U.S.–China trade tensions following the Trump–Xi meeting, which produced tariff pauses and commitments on key exports. These developments have helped sustain the rally despite political uncertainty in Washington, where the government shutdown continues to delay major data releases.

While October’s volatility briefly spiked, equities held firm near record highs. Traders are watching whether November’s seasonal strength can continue, with the S&P 500 historically averaging a 1.8% monthly gain.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Nov 3
Before the Open:
• Affiliated Managers (AMG), est. $5.89
• IDEXX Labs (IDXX), est. $3.14
• Pinnacle West (PNW), est. $3.07
• Freshpet (FRPT), est. $0.42
Economic Releases:
• 14:45 GMT – Final Manufacturing PMI, forecast 52.2 (prior 52.2)
• 15:00 GMT – ISM Manufacturing PMI, forecast 49.4 (prior 49.1)
• 15:00 GMT – ISM Manufacturing Prices, forecast 62.4 (prior 61.9)
After the Close:
• Palantir Technologies (PLTR), est. $0.17
• Clorox (CLX), est. $0.78
• Diamondback Energy (FANG), est. $2.95

Tuesday, Nov 4
Before the Open:
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), est. $1.17
• Shopify (SHOP), est. $0.34
• Pfizer (PFE), est. $0.63
• Uber (UBER), est. $0.69
• Ferrari (RACE), est. $2.39
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled (data delayed by government shutdown)
After the Close:
• Amgen (AMGN), est. $5.02
• Arista Networks (ANET), est. $0.72
• Spotify (SPOT), est. $1.96

Wednesday, Nov 5
Before the Open:
• McDonald’s (MCD), est. $3.33
• Novo Nordisk (NVO), est. $0.96
Economic Releases:
• 13:15 GMT – ADP Employment Report, forecast +28K (prior -32K)
• 14:45 GMT – Final Services PMI, forecast 55.1 (prior 55.2)
• 15:00 GMT – ISM Services PMI, forecast 50.8 (prior 50.0)
After the Close:
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD), est. $0.54
• Qualcomm (QCOM), est. $2.87
• Arm Holdings (ARM), est. $0.33
• DoorDash (DASH), est. $0.68

Thursday, Nov 6
Before the Open:
• AstraZeneca (AZN), est. $1.15
• ConocoPhillips (COP), est. $1.41
• Parker-Hannifin (PH), est. $6.62
Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Challenger Job Cuts y/y, prior -25.8%
• 12:30 GMT – Nonfarm Productivity q/q, forecast 3.6% (prior 3.3%)
• 12:30 GMT – Unit Labor Costs q/q, forecast 0.9% (prior 1.0%)
After the Close:
• Airbnb (ABNB), est. $2.31
• Affirm (AFRM), est. $0.11
• Block (XYZ), est. $0.64

Friday, Nov 7
Before the Open:
• Duke Energy (DUK), est. $1.75
• Constellation Energy (CEG), est. $3.09
• KKR (KKR), est. $1.29
Economic Releases:
• 15:00 GMT – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, forecast 53.0 (prior 53.6)
• 19:00 GMT – Consumer Credit, prior +$0.4B

Central Bank Activity

Thursday, Nov 6
• Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed President) – 14:00 GMT
• Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed President) – 16:30 GMT

Friday, Nov 7
• John Williams (New York Fed President) – 07:00 GMT

Fed speakers this week will clarify policy intentions following the October rate cut. Markets will watch for any signals that December easing remains possible, especially if private jobs data show further weakness.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 47,562.88 (+0.75%), support at 45,452.03. The 52-week moving average is 43,639.26. resistance at 48,040.64.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 23,724.96 (+2.24%), support at 22,193.07, 20,905.99 and 20,560.17. The 52-week moving average is at 19,870.57. Resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,840.20 (-0.71%), support at 6,550.78, 6,360.58 and  6,212.69. The 52-week moving average is at 6,079.52. Resistance is at 6,920.34.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.

Outlook

This week’s market tone will hinge on earnings from AI leaders and the ADP jobs report as the government shutdown continues to obscure official data. With the Fed signaling caution and policymakers split over December’s rate decision, any downside surprise in private-sector employment could reinforce expectations for further cuts.

Tech results will remain in focus, with AMD, Qualcomm, and Palantir providing the next test of the AI rally’s durability. Pharma earnings and tariff headlines may add volatility, though solid profit trends and easing trade tensions continue to support sentiment.

Overall, equities enter November with positive momentum. Seasonal strength, steady earnings, and a dovish Fed bias suggest pullbacks may stay contained, keeping the near-term outlook constructive for risk assets.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.