The Week Ahead: Markets Focus on Fed Decision and Big Tech Earnings

Market Overview

U.S. equities retreated modestly last week as geopolitical headlines briefly rattled sentiment before investors refocused on earnings and macro data. The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% to 6,916, the Nasdaq eased 0.1% to 23,501, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 49,099. Year-to-date gains stand at 1.0%, 1.1%, and 2.2%, respectively.

A short-lived tariff flare-up involving President Trump’s proposal to raise duties on several European partners weighed on risk appetite early in the week but was quickly offset by easing rhetoric and steady U.S. data.

Attention now turns squarely to the first Federal Reserve meeting of 2026, with investors widely expecting policymakers to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday will be the week’s key event as markets look for any shift in tone toward future rate cuts.

Economic indicators remain firm. Jobless claims continue to show no sign of broad layoffs, while consumer confidence has improved to a five-month high. Corporate results have also been supportive, with roughly 80% of early S&P 500 reporters beating profit estimates. Still, large-cap tech names have paused after a strong 2025, leaving traders focused on whether upcoming results from Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla can re-ignite leadership.

The broader theme this week is a potential handoff from mega-cap dominance to wider earnings participation across sectors. Improving growth prospects, stabilizing rates, and resilient corporate margins could support a more diversified advance through the first quarter.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Jan 26
Before the Open:
• Bank of Hawaii (BOH), est. $1.26
• Lakeland Financial (LKFN), est. $1.06
• Steel Dynamics (STLD), est. $1.86
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Core Durable Goods Orders, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.1%)
• 13:30 GMT – Durable Goods Orders, forecast 3.1% (prior -2.2%)
After the Close:
• Agilysys (AGYS), est. $0.46
• Alexandria RE (ARE), est. $2.14

Tuesday, Jan 27
Before the Open:
• American Airlines (AAL), est. $0.37
• Boeing (BA), est. -$0.43
• Northrop Grumman (NOC), est. $7.00
Economic Releases:
• 14:00 GMT – CB Consumer Confidence, forecast 90.1 (prior 89.1)
• 14:00 GMT – Richmond Fed Index, forecast -5 (prior -7)
After the Close:
• Texas Instruments (TXN), est. $1.29
• Seagate Technology (STX), est. $2.83

Wednesday, Jan 28
Before the Open:
• GE Vernova (GEV), est. $3.12
Economic Releases:
• 15:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior +3.6M
• 19:00 GMT – FOMC Rate Decision, forecast 3.75% (prior 3.75%)
• 19:30 GMT – Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
After the Close:
• Microsoft (MSFT), est. $3.92
• Meta Platforms (META), est. $8.17
• Tesla (TSLA), est. $0.45

Thursday, Jan 29
Before the Open:
• Caterpillar (CAT), est. $4.70
• Mastercard (MA), est. $4.24
• Honeywell (HON), est. $2.53
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Initial Jobless Claims, forecast 202K (prior 200K)
• 15:00 GMT – Factory Orders, forecast 0.5% (prior -1.3%)
After the Close:
• Apple (AAPL), est. $2.67
• Stryker (SYK), est. $4.39
• Western Digital (WDC), est. $1.92

Friday, Jan 30
Before the Open:
• American Express (AXP), est. $3.53
• Chevron (CVX), est. $1.44
• Exxon Mobil (XOM), est. $1.70
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Core PPI, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.0%)
• 13:30 GMT – PPI, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
• 14:45 GMT – Chicago PMI, forecast 43.3 (prior 43.5)

Central Bank Activity

Wednesday, Jan 28
• Jerome Powell (Fed Chair) – 19:30 GMT press conference following FOMC decision.
Friday, Jan 30
• Patrick Musalem (FOMC Member) – 12:30 GMT speech.
Fed commentary will be parsed for any shift toward near-term easing. Powell is expected to emphasize data dependence while reiterating that current rates remain modestly restrictive.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 49,098.72 (-0.53%), support at 48,580.92, 47,921.35, 45,728.93 then 44,681.05 (52-week SMA), resistance at 49,633.35.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 23,501.24 (-0.06%), support at 22,955.61, 21,898.29, 20,905.99 then 20,745.64 (52-week SMA), resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,915.61 (-0.35%), support at 6,810.14, 6,521.92, 6,360.58 then 6,277.19 (52-week SMA), resistance at 6,986.33.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.

Outlook

Markets enter the final week of January with focus on the Fed’s policy stance and mega-cap earnings. Powell’s message is expected to balance confidence in the economy with patience on further rate cuts. Traders will be watching for confirmation that policy remains on hold until more inflation and labor data clarify direction.

Earnings from Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla will serve as key sentiment drivers. Strong results could re-assert tech leadership, while softer guidance may accelerate rotation into cyclicals and small caps.

With geopolitics fading and fundamentals back in focus, the tone for February will hinge on whether this week’s data and Fed commentary sustain optimism for a soft-landing narrative and gradual policy easing.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.