The Week Ahead: Markets Focus on GDP Data and Tech Momentum in Holiday Trade

Market Overview

U.S. equities enter the final full trading week of 2025 with mixed momentum. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each posted modest weekly gains of 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.7%, ending a three-week winning streak. Futures are slightly higher heading into the holiday-shortened week, suggesting traders are weighing whether tech can extend its rebound before year-end.

Artificial intelligence names helped stabilize sentiment last week, with Oracle rallying on renewed interest in its AI partnerships and Nvidia rebounding after several weeks of underperformance. Still, with valuations stretched and volume thinning into Christmas, conviction remains limited as investors debate whether the long-discussed “Santa Claus rally” will arrive.

Economic data released late last week reinforced expectations for softer inflation and a cooling labor market, bolstering the view that the Federal Reserve will maintain an easing bias into 2026. However, distortions from the recent government shutdown have left investors cautious about drawing firm conclusions from the latest CPI and jobs numbers.

The week ahead will be dominated by delayed third-quarter GDP data and a handful of second-tier reports, providing one of the final reads on growth before the new year. Market participation is expected to thin as trading desks wind down for the holidays, with the NYSE closing early Wednesday and shuttered Thursday for Christmas.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Dec 22
Before the Open:
• No earnings reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled

After the Close:
• No earnings reports scheduled

Tuesday, Dec 23
Before the Open:
• No earnings reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Preliminary GDP q/q, forecast 3.2% (prior 3.8%)
• 13:30 GMT – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast -1.4% (prior +0.6%)
• 13:30 GMT – Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast +0.2% (prior +0.5%)
• 13:30 GMT – Preliminary GDP Price Index q/q, forecast 2.6% (prior 2.1%)
• 14:15 GMT – Industrial Production m/m, forecast +0.1% (prior +0.1%)
• 15:00 GMT – CB Consumer Confidence, forecast 91.7 (prior 88.7)
• 15:00 GMT – Richmond Manufacturing Index, forecast -7 (prior -15)

After the Close:
• No earnings reports scheduled

Wednesday, Dec 24
Before the Open:
• No earnings reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 220K (prior 224K)
• 15:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior -1.3M
• 17:00 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, prior -167B
After the Close:
• No earnings reports scheduled

Thursday, Dec 25
All Day: Bank Holiday (U.S. markets closed)

Friday, Dec 26
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled

After the Close:
• No earnings reports scheduled

Central Bank Activity

Sunday, Dec 21
• Hammack (FOMC Member) – 06:00 GMT

Fed commentary remains focused on data distortions from the government shutdown. Chair Powell and other officials have reiterated that recent inflation and labor readings will not alter the near-term rate outlook, reinforcing expectations for gradual 2026 easing.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 48,134.90 (-0.67%), support at 45,728.93, 44,114.11 (52-week SMA), then 43,340.68, resistance at 48,886.86.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 23,307.62 (+0.48%), support at 21,898.29, 20,905.99, 20,372.05 (52-week SMA), then 20,560.17, resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,834.50 (-0.10%), support at 6,521.92, 6,360.58, 6,212.69, 6,185.42 (52-week SMA), then 5,943.23, resistance at 6,920.34.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.

Weekly Outlook

With GDP and manufacturing data closing out the year, investors will focus on confirming whether growth remains resilient into 2026. Softer inflation and stable hiring trends have supported expectations for moderate Fed rate cuts next year, though policymakers are signaling a measured approach.

Thin holiday liquidity could amplify price swings, but with breadth improving and AI-related momentum stabilizing, market tone remains cautiously constructive. A steady GDP print and muted inflation pressure would likely help equities end the year on firm footing, setting up for a potential extension of gains early in 2026.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.