The Week Ahead: Markets Focus on PCE, Fed Speakers, and Consumer Sentiment

Market Overview

U.S. equities rallied last week after the Fed delivered its first rate cut in nearly two years. The Dow rose 1.0% to 46,315 (+8.9% YTD), the S&P 500 gained 1.2% to 6,664 (+13.3% YTD), and the Nasdaq added 2.2% to 22,631 (+17.2% YTD). The Russell 2000 outperformed, hitting a record high.

The 25 bp cut reflected concerns about labor softness even as inflation remains above target. Fed officials stressed data dependence and uneven progress on prices. Markets welcomed the move, viewing it as the start of a gradual easing cycle extending into 2026.

This week’s central focus is inflation. The Fed’s preferred gauge, the PCE Price Index, is due Friday alongside consumer sentiment revisions. Both will guide expectations for further cuts.

Consumer surveys already show elevated price anxiety and weaker confidence in job prospects. Together with PCE, these inputs will define the near-term policy outlook.

Key Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Sep 22
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled

Tuesday, Sep 23
Before the Open:
• AutoZone (AZO), est. $50.94
Economic Releases:
• 07:30 GMT – Current Account, -273B (prior -450B)
• 08:45 GMT – Flash Manufacturing PMI, 51.8 (prior 53.0)
• 08:45 GMT – Flash Services PMI, 53.8 (prior 54.5)
• 09:00 GMT – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, -9 (prior -7)
• 15:30 GMT – API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
After the Close:
• AAR (AIR), est. $1.00
• Micron (MU), est. $2.78
• MillerKnoll (MLKN), est. $0.34
• Worthington Enterprises (WOR), est. $0.70

Wednesday, Sep 24
Before the Open:
• Cintas (CTAS), est. $1.19
• Thor Industries (THO), est. $1.28
Economic Releases:
• 09:00 GMT – New Home Sales, 651K (prior 652K)
• 09:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior -9.3M
After the Close:
• H.B. Fuller (FUL), est. $1.24
• KB Home (KBH), est. $1.50
• Steelcase (SCS), est. $0.36
• Stitch Fix (SFIX), est. -$0.10
• Worthington Steel (WS), est. $0.74

Thursday, Sep 25
Before the Open:
• Accenture (ACN), est. $2.97
• CarMax (KMX), est. $1.04
• Jabil (JBL), est. $2.91
• TD Synnex (SNX), est. $3.05
Economic Releases:
• 07:30 GMT – Final GDP q/q, 3.3% (prior 3.3%)
• 07:30 GMT – Jobless Claims, 235K (prior 231K)
• 07:30 GMT – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, -0.2% (prior 1.0%)
• 07:30 GMT – Durable Goods Orders m/m, -0.4% (prior -2.8%)
• 07:30 GMT – GDP Price Index q/q, 2.0% (prior 2.0%)
• 07:30 GMT – Goods Trade Balance, -95.5B (prior -102.8B)
• 07:30 GMT – Wholesale Inventories m/m, 0.1% (prior 0.1%)
• 09:00 GMT – Existing Home Sales, 3.96M (prior 4.01M)
• 09:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, prior +90B
After the Close:
• Costco (COST), est. $5.81
• BlackBerry (BB), est. $0.01
• Concentrix (CNXC), est. $2.86

Friday, Sep 26
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• 07:30 GMT – Core PCE Price Index m/m, 0.2% est (prior 0.3%)
• 07:30 GMT – Personal Income m/m, 0.3% est (prior 0.4%)
• 07:30 GMT – Personal Spending m/m, 0.5% est (prior 0.5%)
• 09:00 GMT – Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final), 55.4 est (prior 55.4)
• 09:00 GMT – Univ. of Michigan Inflation Expectations, 4.8% est
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled

Central Bank Activity

Monday, Sep 22: Williams (08:45 GMT), Musalem (09:00 GMT), Miran (11:00 GMT), Barkin, Hammack
Tuesday, Sep 23: Bowman (08:00 GMT), Bostic (09:00 GMT), Powell (11:35 GMT)
Wednesday, Sep 24: Daly (15:10 GMT)
Thursday, Sep 25: Goolsbee (07:20 GMT), Williams (08:00 GMT), Bowman (09:00 GMT), Barr (12:00 GMT), Logan (12:40 GMT), Daly (14:30 GMT)
Friday, Sep 26: Barkin (08:00 GMT), Bowman (12:00 GMT)

Powell’s remarks Tuesday are the main event. Markets will parse his tone for clarity on how quickly further easing might come.

Technical Outlook

• Dow Jones: 46,315.28 (+1.05%), support at 43,340.68 then 43,168.61 (52-week SMA), resistance at 46,396.47.

• Nasdaq: 22,631.48 (+2.21%), support at 21,033, 20,905.99 and 20,560.17 then 19,346.91 (52-week SMA), resistance at 22,645.11.

•  S&P 500: 6,664.36 (+1.22%), support at 6,360.58, 6,343.86 and 6,212.69 then 5,973.71 (52-week SMA), resistance at 6,671.82

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.

Outlook

The Fed’s cut has reset expectations, but policy direction remains tied to inflation and labor readings. Friday’s PCE and sentiment data are the decisive inputs for near-term market tone.

Consumer surveys already show stress on inflation and jobs, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance. Fed speakers, led by Powell, will be closely monitored for any signal on whether additional easing is imminent.

With equities at highs, traders will treat PCE and sentiment results as the key test of whether this rally can extend into October.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.