The Week Ahead: Markets Look Ahead to Payrolls as Energy Shock Fuels Inflation Risks

Market Overview

U.S. equities closed lower last week as geopolitical risk and rising energy prices pressured sentiment. The S&P 500 declined -2.12% to 6,368.85, the Nasdaq Composite dropped -3.23% to 20,948.36, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped -0.90% to 45,166.65.

Selling was concentrated in technology, with the Nasdaq leading to the downside as higher yields and margin pressure weighed on growth stocks. The Dow held relatively firm due to less exposure to rate-sensitive sectors.

A key technical shift accompanied the move lower. All three major indices closed below their rising 52-week moving averages — Dow (45,515.56), Nasdaq (21,381.73), and S&P 500 (6,429.83). This signals a loss of long-term trend support, with these levels now acting as overhead resistance.

The primary driver remains the Iran conflict, which continues to push oil prices higher and keep volatility elevated. Markets are increasingly pricing a prolonged energy shock with implications for inflation and corporate margins .

Rising gasoline prices are feeding into inflation expectations, with headline CPI expected to move toward 3.5% year-over-year in coming months. This complicates the Fed’s policy outlook as it balances inflation pressures against softer growth signals.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Mar 30
Before the Open:
• Fermi America (FRMI), est. -$0.01
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled
After the Close:
• Phreesia (PHR), est. $0.06

Tuesday, Mar 31
Before the Open:
• TD Synnex (SNX), est. $3.31
• FactSet (FDS), est. $4.38
• McCormick (MKC), est. $0.60
Economic Releases:
• 13:00 GMT – CB Consumer Confidence, forecast 88.0 (prior 91.2)
• 13:00 GMT – JOLTS Job Openings, forecast 6.90M (prior 6.95M)
After the Close:
• Nike (NKE), est. $0.28
• Dave & Buster’s (PLAY), est. $0.39
• nCino (NCNO), est. $0.21
• PVH (PVH), est. $3.31

Wednesday, Apr 1
Before the Open:
• Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), est. $0.70
• Conagra (CAG), est. $0.41
• Lamb Weston (LW), est. $0.61
• MSC Industrial (MSM), est. $0.84
• UniFirst (UNF), est. $1.19
Economic Releases:
• 12:15 GMT – ADP Employment Change, forecast 42K (prior 63K)
• 12:30 GMT – Retail Sales m/m, forecast 0.4% (prior -0.2%)
• 14:00 GMT – ISM Manufacturing PMI, forecast 52.3 (prior 52.4)
After the Close:
• Penguin Solutions (PENG), est. $0.42

Thursday, Apr 2
Before the Open:
• Acuity (AYI), est. $4.07
• Lindsay (LNN), est. $1.70
Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Initial Jobless Claims, forecast 212K (prior 210K)
• 12:30 GMT – Trade Balance, forecast -59.8B (prior -54.5B)
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled

Friday, Apr 3
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Nonfarm Payrolls, forecast 56K (prior -92K)
• 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Rate, forecast 4.4% (prior 4.4%)
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled

Central Bank Activity

Monday: Jerome Powell (Fed Chair) – 14:30 GMT
Monday: John Williams (FOMC Member) – 20:00 GMT

Tuesday: Austan Goolsbee (FOMC Member) – 16:00 GMT
Tuesday: Michael Barr (FOMC Member) – 19:00 GMT
Tuesday: Michelle Bowman (FOMC Member) – 21:10 GMT

Wednesday: Alberto Musalem (FOMC Member) – 13:05 GMT
Wednesday: Michael Barr (FOMC Member) – 13:10 GMT

Fed commentary will be closely watched for how policymakers frame the inflation impact of higher energy prices. Any shift toward concern over sustained inflation could move rate expectations and reinforce pressure on risk assets.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 45,166.65 (-0.90%), support at 43,562.29, 41,921.97, resistance at 45,515.56 (52-week SMA), 50,512.79.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 20,948.36 (-3.23%), support at 19,402.01, 18,312.17, 14,784.03, resistance at 21,381.73 (52-week SMA), 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,368.85 (-2.12%), support at 5,918.66, 5,662.93, 4,835.04, resistance at 6,429.83 (52-week SMA), 7,002.28.

All major indices are trading below their rising 52-week SMAs, with those levels now acting as resistance and signaling a deterioration in the primary trend.

Outlook

Markets enter the week focused on the March jobs report and continued developments in the Middle East. Payrolls will be key following February’s sharp decline, with expectations pointing to a modest rebound.

Inflation remains central as higher energy prices feed into headline data. This keeps pressure on the Fed’s policy outlook, with multiple Fed speakers this week providing further insight into how policymakers are balancing inflation risks against growth concerns.

From a technical perspective, the break below the 52-week moving averages across all major indices is a critical development. These levels now serve as resistance, and failure to reclaim them would keep downside pressure in place and leave markets exposed to further weakness in the near term.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.