The Week Ahead: Markets Turn to Fed Minutes as Investors Close Out 2025

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures were slightly lower on Monday as traders wrapped up a strong 2025. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.2%, Nasdaq-100 futures declined 0.4%, and Dow Jones futures traded near the flatline. The modest pullback follows a record-setting week for major indices, as the S&P 500 reached an intraday high of 6,945.77 before ending just below breakeven.

The S&P 500 advanced nearly 18% in 2025, supported by strong technology sector gains and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence investment. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 22% yearly rise, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 14.5%, its best annual showing since 2021.

Tech leaders including Nvidia, Micron, and Oracle eased in premarket trading after outsized weekly gains last week.

Investors enter the final trading days of the year with sentiment underpinned by the “Santa Claus rally” period. Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of over 1% during the final five sessions of the year and the first two of the new year.

This week’s focus turns to the Federal Reserve, with the minutes from the December meeting due Tuesday. Traders will be assessing how divided policymakers were on the December rate cut and whether conditions support further easing in early 2026.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Dec 29
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• 15:00 GMT – Pending Home Sales m/m, forecast +1.0% (prior +1.9%)
• 15:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, forecast -2.0M (prior -1.3M)
• 17:00 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, forecast -169B (prior -167B)

Tuesday, Dec 30
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• 14:00 GMT – HPI m/m, forecast +0.1% (prior +0.0%)
• 14:00 GMT – S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, forecast +1.1% (prior +1.4%)
• 14:45 GMT – Chicago PMI, forecast 39.6 (prior 36.3)
• 19:00 GMT – FOMC Meeting Minutes

Wednesday, Dec 31
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 215K (prior 214K)
• 15:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories (no forecast)
• 17:00 GMT – Natural Gas Storage (no forecast)

Thursday, Jan 1
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• Bank Holiday – No releases scheduled

Friday, Jan 2
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• 14:45 GMT – Final Manufacturing PMI, forecast 51.8 (prior 51.8)

Central Bank Activity

Tuesday, Dec 30
• Federal Reserve – FOMC Meeting Minutes, 19:00 GMT

Saturday, Jan 3
• Paulson (FOMC Member) – 10:15 GMT
• Paulson (FOMC Member) – 14:30 GMT

The Fed minutes will be scrutinized for the tone of December’s debate, as policymakers were split on continuing rate cuts. Markets are pricing in two 25 bp cuts for 2026, with the first possibly in March. Any hint of pushback from Fed members could temper expectations.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 48,710.98 (+1.20%), support at 45,728.93, 45,452.03 then 44,224.09, resistance at 48,886.86.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 23,593.10 (+1.22%), support at 21,898.29, 20,905.99, 19,334.98 then 20,446.49, resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,929.94 (+1.40%), support at 6,521.92, 6,360.58, 6,212.69 then 6,203.87, resistance at 6,945.77.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend into year-end.

Outlook

With trading volume expected to stay light, attention centers on the Fed’s December minutes for confirmation of its rate path into 2026. Any sign of hesitation toward further cuts could test the year-end rally, though broader momentum remains constructive.

The market’s strength through December reflects continued investor confidence in AI-driven earnings and the prospect of moderate monetary easing next year. Barring surprises from the Fed minutes, the S&P 500 could hold near record territory into early January.

Positive technicals and resilient year-end sentiment leave equities positioned to extend gains as 2026 begins, though short-term consolidation near highs remains likely after an exceptional year for risk assets.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.