The Week Ahead: PCE, Fed Speakers and Tech Earnings Test Market Momentum

Market Overview

The S&P 500 continued to extend its advance last week, adding +0.88% and closing at 7,473.47. The index remains near record territory and continues to trade well above long-term trend support. Strength in earnings and continued AI-related demand remained an important support for sentiment.

The Nasdaq Composite also pushed higher, gaining +0.45% to close at 26,343.97. Technology leadership remained intact as investors continued to focus on corporate profits and AI-related investment activity. Strong earnings growth remains an important support for equities even as rates move higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted the strongest move among the major benchmarks, rising +2.13% to finish at 50,579.71. The index pushed toward new highs and remained supported by broader participation outside large-cap technology.

The primary theme this week is inflation and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Bond yields have continued moving higher as markets respond to resilient growth, higher energy prices, inflation concerns, and uncertainty surrounding future Fed policy. Investors are also monitoring economic growth signals and commentary from Federal Reserve officials.

The week becomes more active after the Memorial Day holiday. Markets will focus heavily on Core PCE data, GDP figures, and a busy slate of Fed speakers that could influence expectations for monetary policy.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, May 25

Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled.

Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled.

After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Tuesday, May 26

Before the Open:
• AutoZone (AZO), est. $36.18
• Champion Homes (SKY), est. $0.62
• CSW Industrials (CSW), est. $2.41

Economic Releases:
• 13:00 GMT – HPI m/m, forecast 0.1% (prior 0.0%)
• 13:00 GMT – S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, forecast 1.0% (prior 0.9%)
• 14:00 GMT – CB Consumer Confidence, forecast 91.9 (prior 92.8)

After the Close:
• Box (BOX), est. $0.36
• Modine Manufacturing (MOD), est. $1.55
• Semtech (SMTC), est. $0.45
• Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM), est. $1.57
• Zscaler (ZS), est. $1.01

Wednesday, May 27

Before the Open:
• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), est. $1.28
• Bank of Montreal (BMO), est. $2.52
• Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), est. $1.41
• Bath & Body Works (BBWI), est. $0.29
• Capri Holdings (CPRI), est. $0.12
• Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), est. $2.87
• Dycom (DY), est. $2.73
• Monro Muffler (MNRO), est. -$0.05

Economic Releases:
• 08:15 GMT – ADP Weekly Employment Change, prior 42.3K
• 14:00 GMT – Richmond Manufacturing Index, forecast 5 (prior 3)

After the Close:
• Agilent (A), est. $1.41
• Braze (BRZE), est. $0.10
• HEICO (HEI), est. $1.33
• HP Inc. (HPQ), est. $0.71
• Marvell Technology (MRVL), est. $0.79
• nCino (NCNO), est. $0.27
• Nutanix (NTNX), est. $0.36
• Phreesia (PHR), est. $0.01
• Salesforce (CRM), est. $3.13
• Snowflake (SNOW), est. $0.32
• Synopsys (SNPS), est. $3.15

Thursday, May 28

Before the Open:
• Autohome (ATHM), est. $1.58
• Burlington Stores (BURL), est. $1.79
• CIBC (CM), est. $1.79
• Dollar Tree (DLTR), est. $1.56
• Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR), est. $0.00
• Hormel Foods (HRL), est. $0.35
• Kohl’s (KSS), est. -$0.19
• Li Auto (LI), est. -$1.83
• Photronics (PLAB), est. $0.53
• Royal Bank of Canada (RY), est. $2.78
• Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), est. $1.65
• Weibo (WB), est. $0.36

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Core PCE Price Index m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.3%)
• 12:30 GMT – Prelim GDP q/q, forecast 2.1% (prior 0.7%)
• 12:30 GMT – Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, forecast 3.6% (prior 3.8%)
• 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 210K (prior 209K)
• 12:30 GMT – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast 0.5% (prior 0.9%)
• 12:30 GMT – Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast 3.3% (prior 0.8%)
• 12:30 GMT – Personal Income m/m, forecast 0.4% (prior 0.6%)
• 12:30 GMT – Personal Spending m/m, forecast 0.5% (prior 0.9%)
• 14:00 GMT – New Home Sales, forecast 661K (prior 682K)
• 14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage
• 16:00 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior -7.9M

After the Close:
• Ambarella (AMBA), est. $0.10
• American Eagle (AEO), est. $0.12
• Asana (ASAN), est. $0.08
• Autodesk (ADSK), est. $2.84
• Costco (COST), est. $4.98
• Dell (DELL), est. $2.89
• Elastic (ESTC), est. $0.56
• Gap (GAP), est. $0.37
• HealthEquity (HQY), est. $1.11
• MongoDB (MDB), est. $1.19
• NetApp (NTAP), est. $2.27
• Okta (OKTA), est. $0.85
• PagerDuty (PD), est. $0.25
• PayPay Corporation (PAYP), est. $0.14
• SentinelOne (S), est. $0.02
• UiPath (PATH), est. $0.16

Friday, May 29

Before the Open:
• Buckle (BKE), est. $0.74

Economic Releases:
• 10:30 GMT – Goods Trade Balance, forecast -88.6B (prior -87.9B)
• 10:30 GMT – Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, forecast 0.5% (prior 1.3%)
• 13:45 GMT – Chicago PMI, forecast 51.3 (prior 49.2)

After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Central Bank Activity

Monday

No speakers scheduled.

Tuesday

No speakers scheduled.

Wednesday

08:00 GMT – Logan (FOMC Member)
19:55 GMT – Cook (FOMC Member)
00:00 GMT – Jefferson (FOMC Member)
02:25 GMT – Goolsbee (FOMC Member)

Thursday

13:55 GMT – Williams (FOMC Member)
15:15 GMT – Musalem (FOMC Member)

Friday

10:50 GMT – Schmid (FOMC Member)
13:10 GMT – Bowman (FOMC Member)
13:15 GMT – Paulson (FOMC Member)

Fed commentary could influence rate expectations and Treasury yields. Markets remain highly sensitive to inflation discussion and any signals regarding future policy direction.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 50,579.71 (+2.13%), support at 48,708.57, 46,817.60 (52-week SMA), 45,057.28, resistance at 50,830.24.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 26,343.97 (+0.45%), support at 22,500.60 (52-week SMA), 20,690.25, resistance at 26,707.14.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 7,473.47 (+0.88%), support at 6,676.92 (52-week SMA), 6,316.91, 5,943.23, resistance at 7,517.12.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact primary uptrend.

Outlook

Thursday’s Core PCE release is the week’s primary catalyst. Inflation data and GDP revisions will influence rate expectations and could affect both Treasury yields and equity positioning. Markets also face a heavy schedule of Fed commentary.

Earnings remain active across technology and consumer names. Salesforce, Snowflake, Marvell Technology, Dell, Zscaler, and Synopsys will provide insight into enterprise spending and AI-related demand.

Dollar Tree, Kohl’s, Bath & Body Works, and Dick’s Sporting Goods will provide a read on consumer spending conditions.

Markets continue to lean on strong earnings support. Economic data and Fed messaging will likely determine whether equities can sustain recent momentum while rates remain elevated.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.