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U.S. Dollar Retreats Ahead Of Fed Decision: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Jun 18, 2025, 16:43 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD climbed back above the 1.1500 level as traders prepared for Fed decision.
  • USD/CAD was mostly unchanged as traders reacted to volatility in the oil markets.
  • USD/JPY declined as Treasury yields pulled back.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Is Moving Lower As Traders Wait For Fed Decision

DXY
DXY 180625 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground ahead of Fed decision, which will be released soon. Analysts expect that Fed will keep rates unchanged, so traders will focus on Powell’s comments. Importantly, Fed will also release FOMC Economic Projections, which may have a material impact on forex markets.

In case U.S. Dollar Index settles back below the 50 MA at 98.56, it will head towards the support level, which is located in the 98.00 – 98.20 range.

EUR/USD Rebounded Above 1.1500

EUR/USD
EUR/USD 180625 4h Chart

EUR/USD gains ground as traders prepare for Fed decision. Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle above the 1.1500 level.

In case this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will move towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.1685 – 1.1700 range.

GBP/USD Gains Ground As Traders Focus On UK Inflation Data

GBP/USD
GBP/USD 180625 4h Chart

GBP/USD moved higher as traders reacted to inflation data from the UK. Inflation Rate decreased from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May, in line with analyst estimates. Core Inflation Rate declined from 3.8% to 3.5%, compared to analyst forecast of 3.6%.

If GBP/USD moves above the 1.3500 level, it will get to the test of the 50 MA at 1.3534.

USD/CAD Tests Resistance At 1.3650 – 1.3675

USD/CAD
USD/CAD 180625 4h Chart

USD/CAD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance at 1.3650 – 1.3665 as traders monitor the wild swings in the oil market.

A move above the 1.3665 level opens the way to the test of the next resistance at 1.3725 – 1.3740.

USD/JPY Pulls Back As Treasury Yields Decline

USD/JPY
USD/JPY 180625 4h Chart

USD/JPY is losing ground as traders focus on the pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 3.92% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries pulled back towards 4.35%.

A successful test of the nearest support level at 143.50 – 144.00 will push USD/JPY towards the support level at 140.00 – 140.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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