US Dollar Forecast: DXY Presses Higher as Treasury Yields Climb on Tariff News

Treasury Yields Climb, Dollar Index Eyes Breakout

The US Dollar Index is holding firm near 97.78 on Tuesday, pressing against the short-term pivot at 97.899 as rising Treasury yields and Trump’s new tariff threats support the greenback.

The DXY is testing critical resistance levels, with a break above this pivot opening a potential acceleration toward the 50-day moving average at 99.00 and the June 23 top at 99.421.

On the downside, minor support sits at 97.083, followed by the multi-year low at 96.377, giving traders defined levels for near-term positioning.

Trump Tariffs Weigh on Yen, Bolster Dollar

The Japanese Yen weakened after President Trump reiterated plans to impose 25% tariffs on goods from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, fueling demand for the dollar.

The USD/JPY pair climbed 0.3% to 146.56 as Tokyo opened talks to seek exemptions, while the euro hit a one-year high against the yen, reflecting diverging sentiment between Europe and Japan.

The trade tensions are adding to the dollar’s appeal as a safe haven, with traders monitoring Trump’s willingness to negotiate further, which could ease or intensify the current pressure on the yen.

Euro Retreats Despite Early Gains

The euro initially climbed against the dollar but reversed lower as traders digested Trump’s tariff stance and the stronger dollar environment.

The EUR/USD is pulling back from highs, signaling that dollar strength remains intact even with temporary spikes in euro buying interest.

EU sources noted the bloc may secure tariff exemptions, providing some insulation for the euro, but the prevailing bid in the dollar is capping rallies as traders prioritize US yield advantages.

US Treasury Yields and Dollar Correlation In Focus

US Treasury yields are moving higher, with the 10-year yield at 4.423% and the 30-year yield climbing to 4.961%, reflecting market reactions to inflation concerns linked to the new tariffs.

Goldman Sachs highlighted a ‘new phenomenon’ where US rates are decoupling from dollar strength, yet traders see the current backdrop of firm yields as supportive for the dollar’s upside.

Foreign holdings of US Treasuries remain stable, suggesting steady demand despite global trade concerns.

Dollar Index Market Forecast

The immediate focus for DXY traders is the 97.899 pivot. A clean breakout above this level could drive a move toward 99.00 and 99.421, supported by firmer Treasury yields and haven flows linked to trade tensions.

The weaker yen and euro add to the dollar’s near-term strength, while downside levels remain clearly defined for risk management.

Unless Trump signals a meaningful tariff reversal, the dollar remains positioned for further upside in the near term.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.