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US Dollar Index News: DXY Plummets to Two-Month Low as Rate Hike Era Wanes

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Nov 20, 2023, 14:27 GMT+00:00

U.S. Dollar Index hits two-month low amid changing Fed rate hike outlook; focus on December meeting, with no key data Monday.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Prices Forecast

Highlights

  • Dollar index hits lowest since September.
  • Markets anticipate potential Fed rate cuts.
  • Euro, yen gain as dollar weakens.

Greenback Hits Two-Month Low Amid Rate Cut Speculations

The U.S. dollar experienced a significant decline against a basket of major currencies on Monday, reaching its lowest point in over two months, as market sentiment shifted towards the expectation of an end to the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.

Market Response to Economic Indicators

The dollar index’s drop to 103.58, the lowest since early September, underscores a broader market reevaluation following weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, particularly in inflation figures. In contrast, the euro and sterling saw modest gains against the weakening dollar, with the euro zone buoyed by Moody’s recent positive credit rating adjustments for Italy and Portugal.

Fed’s Future Rate Decisions in Focus

Market focus is intensifying on the timing of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with futures markets indicating a possibility of rate reductions as early as March. This shift in expectations follows the Fed’s November meeting and last week’s Consumer Price Index report, which pointed to an easing inflation trend.

Technical Outlook and International Perspectives

From a technical standpoint, the dollar appears oversold against the euro, suggesting potential for consolidation in currency markets. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened, remaining robust against the dollar. Despite higher U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar’s decline reflects growing investor belief that the Fed’s rate hiking cycle may be concluding.

Upcoming Fed Meeting and Economic Data

As the Fed prepares for its December meeting, with no change in rates widely anticipated, investors eagerly await the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting for insights into the central bank’s future policy direction. With no major economic data expected on Monday and bond markets closed for Thanksgiving, attention is squarely on the Fed’s forthcoming communications.

Technical Analysis

Daily US Dollar Index (DXY)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 103.678, marginally above its 200-day moving average of 103.617, indicating a neutral long-term trend. However, it is below the 50-day moving average of 105.791, suggesting a short-term bearish sentiment.

The index is slightly above the minor support level at 103.572, but remains below the minor resistance of 105.628, indicating a potential consolidation phase. If the index breaks below the minor support, it could test the main support at 102.853, whereas surpassing the minor resistance might lead to testing the main resistance at 106.904.

Overall, the current positioning of the DXY, along with its proximity to key moving averages, points towards a cautious market sentiment with a bearish inclination in the short term.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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