Dollar Treads Water Before Midterms; Fitch Warning Weighs on Euro
The dollar and other major currencies held in a narrow range on Monday as investors waited for Tuesday’s US midterm elections, which could shift control of Congress, Reuters reported. The euro stayed near a 17-month low against the dollar after a fresh warning on France.
Dollar: Waiting on Washington
Democrats are widely expected to win the House, while control of the Senate is less certain. AMINA Bank’s Andreja Cobeljic said hedge funds suffered significant losses in October, leaving markets with little capacity to absorb an election surprise. Friday’s October jobs report will then shape December Fed hike bets. Central banks in Britain, Australia, Norway and Sweden also decide this week.
Euro: France Drags Again
Fitch revised France’s outlook to negative from stable after Friday’s close, keeping the euro under pressure, Reuters reported. Friday’s data showed the split inside the bloc. Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% in the third quarter, slower than the second quarter but above the 0.2% forecast. France contracted 0.1%, Germany grew 0.2% and Italy stagnated, Eurostat data showed. The ECB, which held rates last week, warned that rising energy prices pose upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. October flash inflation is due Wednesday.
Pound: Growth Gap Supports Sterling
Sterling held steady ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England decision, where a quarter-point hike is widely expected. October flash PMIs showed UK private-sector activity growing at its fastest pace since February. Employment rose for the first time since September 2024, according to S&P Global’s Chris Williamson. Final manufacturing data are due Monday. The euro has also been trading near 17-month lows against the pound.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Holds 101.54 as 102.03 Caps the Rebound
The US Dollar Index is trading near 101.85 on the 4-hour chart, down about 0.1% today. DXY has moved sideways between 101.54 and 102.48 for most of October. Last week’s drop from 102.48 stopped just above 101.54, and the index is now stuck below 102.03 and its faster moving average, a line showing the recent average price.
EUR/USD Price Forecast
Every new EUR/USD analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all EUR/USD forecastsThe first support, where buyers tend to step in, is 101.54, then 101.18. The first resistance, where sellers tend to step in, is 102.03, then 102.48.
RSI, a gauge of buying and selling strength, is near 45 and flat, which is neutral. I am slightly bearish while DXY stays below 102.03. A close below 101.54 would open 101.18, while a move above 102.03 would point back to 102.48.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Reclaims 1.1148 as 1.1215 Comes Into Focus
EUR/USD is trading near 1.1185 on the 4-hour chart, up about 0.2% today. The pair dipped to 1.1104 last week, then climbed back above the 1.1148 zone. After a brief pullback to that level, it is rising again and now sits above its faster moving average, a line showing the recent average price.
The first resistance, where sellers tend to step in, is 1.1215, then 1.1270. The first support, where buyers tend to step in, is 1.1148, then 1.1104.
RSI, a gauge of buying and selling strength, is near 56 and above its signal line, a slower average of RSI, so momentum is improving. I am slightly bullish while EUR/USD holds 1.1148. A close above 1.1215 would open 1.1270.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pound Holds 1.3379 as 1.3434 Comes Into Focus
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3403 on the 4-hour chart, up about 0.1% today. The pound jumped to 1.3434 on Friday, pulled back to 1.3379, and is climbing again. A rising trendline, a line connecting higher lows since October 14, supports the move, and both moving averages are below price.
The first resistance, where sellers tend to step in, is 1.3434, then 1.3470. The first support, where buyers tend to step in, is 1.3379, then 1.3340.
RSI, a gauge of buying and selling strength, is near 62 and above its signal line, a slower average of RSI, so buyers have the edge. I am slightly bullish while the pound holds 1.3379. A close above 1.3434 would open 1.3470.