US Dollar Price Forecast: Traders Eye GDP and PCE Data, GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Market Overview

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded at 97.46 on Tuesday, showing little momentum ahead of key U.S. economic releases. The index remains capped by trendline resistance at 97.80 and faces pressure from subdued manufacturing and services data.

Weak PMI Data Signals Softer Growth

September’s Flash Manufacturing PMI eased to 52.0 from 53.0, while Flash Services PMI slipped to 53.9, its lowest since May. The Richmond Manufacturing Index fell sharply to -17, highlighting weakness in factory activity. These readings suggest the U.S. economy is losing momentum, adding uncertainty to the outlook for the dollar.

Fed Caution and Market Focus

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that policymakers must balance inflation risks with signs of a softening labor market, keeping the timing of future rate cuts data-dependent.

Markets now await fresh signals from Powell’s upcoming remarks, alongside commentary from President Trump.

Key Data Ahead

Traders are focused on this week’s economic calendar. Wednesday brings new home sales, projected at 650K, while Thursday features final Q2 GDP at 3.3%, unemployment claims at 233K, and durable goods orders.

Friday’s core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be critical for setting policy expectations.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) trades at 97.46, testing recovery after bouncing off support at 97.21. The RSI at 54 reflects stabilizing momentum, though upside remains capped by trendline resistance near 97.80 and the 200-EMA at 97.76. Above this barrier, gains could extend to 98.08 and 98.44.

On the downside, failure to hold 97.21 risks a slide to 96.91 or even 96.55. Price action remains confined within a broader downtrend, with lower highs intact.

Unless DXY clears the 97.80 zone, rallies may stall, keeping short-term pressure tilted toward the downside.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Sterling (GBP/USD) trades near 1.3486, pressured below both the 50-EMA at 1.3536 and the 200-EMA at 1.3510. The rejection from 1.3525 resistance confirms a bearish undertone. The RSI sits at 38, reflecting weak momentum and highlighting downside risk.

Immediate support is seen at 1.3450, with a break lower opening the way to 1.3395 and 1.3332. A recovery above 1.3525 would be required to shift bias, with further resistance at 1.3589.

The pair’s inability to sustain above the moving averages suggests rallies remain capped. Short-term structure favors sellers unless momentum improves above 1.3550.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD trades at 1.1789, consolidating within an ascending channel and holding above the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, clustered at 1.1777 and 1.1711. The RSI at 50 signals neutral momentum after recent gains. Key support rests at 1.1768, and a break below could expose 1.1726.

Resistance sits at 1.1820, followed by 1.1874. Despite near-term consolidation, the channel trend remains upward, favoring buyers if the pair holds above the 50-EMA.

A breakout above 1.1820 could accelerate gains toward 1.1900, while downside pressure resumes only below 1.1720. For now, EUR/USD maintains a constructive bias as long as support levels hold.