USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Stalls Against Yen

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 10.11.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar has stalled a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to ask questions about where the markets are going to go in the long term. At this point, it’s probably worth noting that the market has been extraordinarily volatile over the last couple of weeks, so I think we are trying to work off some of the froth from the move higher, and of course decide whether or not we can breakout above what could potentially be a massive “double top” at the ¥152 level on longer-term charts. If and when we do, that should send the US dollar spiking against the Japanese yen, and it is also in the realm of possibility that the Japanese central bank has been involved in keeping the market down from this area.

All that being said, I think this is a market that will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and I do think that the 50-Day EMA underneath will offer a bit of a “floor” in the market. You can also say that the ¥150 level will probably attract a certain amount of attention as well, so I think that if we do get a pull back, and I would fully anticipate one after 3 very positive days in a row, it should end up offering a nice value opportunity given enough time. After all, the interest rate differential favors the US dollar quite significantly against the Japanese yen, and that obviously won’t be changing anytime soon. With this, interest rate differential gets you paid at the end of the session, which is what investors tend to pay attention to the most.

Furthermore, there are a lot of geopolitical concerns out there, and they could drive money into the US Treasury markets, which also demand more dollars. At the end of the day, the US dollar continues to reign supreme in the FX markets, although we are seeing a little bit of weakness against some other major currencies over the last couple of weeks. Longer term though, the trend is very much intact, and the Japanese yen of course can’t get out of its own way from a longer-term standpoint.

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