Gold News: Will Shutdown Talks Break the Stalemate and Trigger a $4000 Gold Price Move?

 Gold Surges for Seventh Week as Shutdown Deepens and Fed Loses Grip on Data

Gold (XAU/USD) closed the week at $3886.45, gaining 3.37% after printing a fresh all-time high at $3897.13. It’s the seventh straight weekly advance, powered by rising rate cut expectations, safe-haven demand, and a deepening U.S. government shutdown that’s stripping the Federal Reserve of critical economic data.

The shutdown enters its fifth day Sunday with no sign of compromise. Congressional talks remain deadlocked, with Republicans and Democrats locked in a standoff over healthcare subsidies and stopgap funding. President Trump has taken a hard public line, but concern is building inside the administration over potential political fallout.

With nonfarm payrolls and CPI postponed, the Fed is operating blind ahead of its October 29 meeting. CME FedWatch now shows a 97% chance of a 25 bp rate cut this month and 85% odds of another in December. Traders leaned on private data in the absence of federal reports, including a 32,000 job drop in ADP’s latest print — the second straight monthly decline.

The U.S. dollar index fell to 97.78, its weakest weekly close since July. Treasury yields slipped, with the 10-year ending at 4.092%. Combined with rising ETF flows — SPDR Gold Trust holdings rose 0.59% to 1,018.89 metric tons — the setup remains broadly supportive for gold. UBS upgraded its gold target to $4200, while Goldman reaffirmed its $4000–$4300 forecast.

Weekly Chart: Uptrend Intact, Eyes on $4000 as Gold Trades in Uncharted Territory

Gold’s weekly trend remains firmly bullish after closing higher for a seventh straight week and setting a new all-time high. With no historical resistance above, the next key level is psychological — $4000.00.

Gold is trading well above its 52-week moving average at $3090.96, a sign of long-term strength but also a possible warning flag for overheating. The market is technically extended and increasingly vulnerable to a short-term pullback.

The clearest signal of near-term exhaustion would be a weekly closing price reversal top. Until that pattern emerges, the uptrend remains the dominant force.

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Unless Weekly Reversal Confirms

The bias stays bullish heading into next week, driven by data paralysis at the Fed and persistent dollar weakness. With no resistance on the weekly chart, $4000.00 remains the immediate target.

However, gold is stretched and vulnerable to correction if the tape prints a weekly reversal pattern. Stay focused on weekly structure and external catalysts — shutdown news and Fed commentary will drive the next move.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.