USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar continues to grind higher

The US dollar continues to grind a little bit higher during the trading session on Monday to test the 200 day EMA and a major resistance barrier overall. With President Trump pushing back the Chinese tariffs, that could be a catalyst to make the Japanese yen sell off.
Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, February 26, 2019

The US dollar initially pulled back during trading on Monday, but then found enough bullish pressure to reach towards the 200 day EMA yet again. This coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level as well, and at this point it looks very likely that we will continue to see a lot of noise as we have reasons to think that the Japanese yen may fall in value, but we also have a massive amount of overhead resistance in this area. Quite frankly, this looks like a short-term scalping opportunity in a back-and-forth range bound system more than anything else.

USD/JPY Video 26.02.19

Looking at this chart, the 50 day EMA is turning up, which is a good sign, while the 200 day EMA is starting to flatten out. The question is whether or not we can break above this cluster that we are trading in right now. That would have this market above the 100 level ¥0.50 level, which would be very bullish. Ultimately though, I think that there are far too many variables out there to put a lot of money to work, and as a result I will probably be doing the same thing in the USD/JPY pair that I have been doing for the last several sessions: sitting on the sidelines and observing. However, above the ¥111.50 level I would be a buyer, just as I would be a seller below the 50 day EMA, pictured in red on this chart.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

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