USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar nose dives that crucial EMA

The US dollar rallied initially during the trading session on Thursday but found the area above the 200 day EMA to be resistive enough to turn the market back around. This was of course exacerbated by the softer than anticipated economic numbers out of the United States. Core Retail Sales missed, PPI missed, Retail Sales missed, and Unemployment Claims were worse than anticipated. This has people that are worried about the global slowdown coming to America talking of course. However, I think at this point it makes sense that we see a pullback anyway, because we had gotten over bought.

USD/JPY Video 14.02.19

The Federal Reserve of course is looking at rather soft and has changed its overall stance when it comes to monetary policy. If that’s going to be the case, it should weigh upon the US dollar, but quite frankly most central banks around the world are very loose so we are starting to see another round of currency wars. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level has offered resistance as well, and this area has previously been rather noisy. With that being the case, then I think a pullback to at least the ¥110 level isn’t a huge stretch of the imagination. Beyond that, there’s a lot of resistance above current levels, so I think what we are looking at here is exhaustion coming back into the marketplace, as we had gotten far ahead of ourselves. If we can break down below the ¥110 level, we can start to pick up momentum to the downside. At this point though, it should be noted that the resiliency of this market is not to be underestimated.

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