The US dollar has fallen rather significantly during the course of the trading week, as it looks like the Federal Reserve cutting rates later this week is starting to creep into the psychology of the market.
The US dollar has fallen pretty significantly during the course of the trading week to break down below the 142.33 yen level. At this point, this is a market that I think continues to find plenty of buyers and given enough time, it’s likely that buyers will continue to find quite a bit of value in this area, with the 145 yen level being a major support region.
The 50 week EMA is also racing towards the 145 yen level. So, I do think that is worth paying attention to. The question now is whether or not we just made a triple top at the highs and while I don’t necessarily subscribe to the fact that it is something that you can trade off because the fundamentals and perhaps more importantly, the interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar, I like the idea of looking at that as a breakaway point.
If we can break above the potential triple top I think this pair has much further to go. However, if we were to break down below the 50-week EMA that could end up being rather ugly and perhaps even send this market into a bit of a tailspin at that point. Ultimately, I’m waiting patiently to see if the uptrend continues. If it does, it will show that the US dollar can continue to weather the storm, and therefore this is a situation where it’ll be very interesting to see how this plays out. A little bit of patience could go a long way in this market.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.