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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – January 6, 2016 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Jan 5, 2016, 11:48 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD dipped 12 points after soaring on Monday. The pair remains near the top of its trading range at 1.3939. Oil

USD/CAD Daily Forecast

usdcad tuesday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD dipped 12 points after soaring on Monday. The pair remains near the top of its trading range at 1.3939. Oil prices fell on Tuesday on concerns about the pace of economic growth in China and a stronger U.S. dollar, handing back some of the gains triggered by an escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

Chinese stock markets fell again on Tuesday after a 7-per-cent dive on Monday, rattling markets worldwide and prompting action from the central bank and stock market regulator.

Concerns about China’s economy, the world’s second-largest consumer, were worsened by news that national rail freight volumes logged their biggest ever annual decline in 2015.

The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of other currencies, weighing on oil prices as it made holding dollar-denominated commodities more expensive.

The Canadian dollar rose after the People’s Bank of China injected 130 billion yuan ($20 billion) into the nation’s money markets and as state-controlled funds were said to have stepped in to support stocks after a $590 billion selloff.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

  USD

 

FOMC Member Williams Speaks  

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Change (Dec)

 

-6K

-13K

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Rate (Dec)

 

6.3%

6.3%

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Dec)

 

56.0

55.3

 

  EUR

 

Core CPI (YoY)  

 

1.0%

0.9%

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Dec)  

 

0.3%

0.2%

 

  CAD

 

RMPI (MoM) (Nov)

 

-3.0%

0.4%

 

  NZD

 

GlobalDairyTrade Price Index

 

 

1.9%

 

 

usdcad

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

 

 

2.900M

 

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Services PMI (Dec)

 

52.3

51.2

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (Dec)

 

55.4

55.4

 

 

  EUR

 

Markit Composite PMI (Dec)

 

54.0

54.0

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (Dec)

 

53.9

53.9

 

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (Dec)

 

55.6

55.9

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Dec)

 

192K

217K

 

 

  USD

 

Trade Balance (Nov)

 

-44.00B

-43.90B

 

 

  CAD

 

Trade Balance (Nov)

 

-2.60B

-2.76B

 

 

  USD

 

Markit Composite PMI (Dec)

 

 

53.5

 

 

  USD

 

Services PMI (Dec)

 

55.1

53.7

 

 

  USD

 

Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov)

 

-0.2%

1.5%

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Dec)

 

 

55.0

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

 

56.0

55.9

 

 

  USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

2.629M

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

 

     

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time and Country

Jan 06 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn 0% Dec 2017 Schatz

Jan 06 n/a Netherlands Announces details of DSL auction on Jan 12

Jan 07 10:50 France Holds bond auction

Jan 07 11:30 UK GBP1.5bn 4% Jan 2060 Gilt

Jan 07 n/a US Announces details of 3-yr note auction on Jan 12

Jan 07 n/a US Announces details of 10-yr note auction on Jan 13

Jan 07 n/a US Announces details of 30-yr bond auction on Jan 14

Jan 08 17:20 Italy Announces details of BTP/

Jan 11 12:00 Norway Announces details of bond auction on Jan 13

Jan 12 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

Jan 12 11:00 Netherlands Euro 1-1.5bn 2.5% 2033 DSL

Jan 12 11:30 UK 0.125% 2046 Inflation-linked Gilt

Jan 12 n/a UK Announces details of Gilt auction on Jan 20

Jan 12 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Jan 13 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Jan 13 11:10 Italy Holds BTP

Jan 13 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn Feb 2026 Bund

Jan 13 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Jan 14 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones (Linkers?)

Jan 14 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Jan 14 n/a US Announces details of 10-yr TIPS auction on Jan 21

Jan 18 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction

 

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