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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis March 1, 2013 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0258 as the US dollar continued to gain against the CAD, after data showed that the current
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0258 as the US dollar continued to gain against the CAD, after data showed that the current account report missed its mark. The Canadian dollar fell for the first time in three days as the nation’s trade deficit narrowed less than forecast, adding to speculation a report tomorrow will show the economy contracted in December. The currency fell against the majority of its most-traded peers after a report showed the nation’s trade deficit shrank to C$17.3 billion ($16.9 billion) in the fourth quarter, compared to the C$17 billion deficit forecast in the median of Bloomberg survey of 18 economists. Canadian gross domestic product shrank 0.2 percent in December, resulting in fourth quarter growth holding steady at 0.6 percent, according to the median estimates of two Bloomberg News surveys.
The market is currently pricing in 1.5bpts of easing by the BoC in the next 12‐months, any unexpected weakness from Canadian GDP will add to this CAD negative pressure. Particularly as the US sequestration deadline is tomorrow
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data February 28, 2013 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Feb. 28 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) |
7.3% |
|
6.3% |
|
-0.5% |
||
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.0% |
|
1.5% |
|
2.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) |
4.2% |
|
|
|
6.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) |
-1.2% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.1% |
||
|
|
|
CHF |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
0.2% |
|
-0.3% |
|
0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
-0.8% |
|
-0.2% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Unemployment Rate |
6.9% |
|
6.8% |
|
6.9% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Unemployment Change |
-3K |
|
-5K |
|
-14K |
||
|
|
|
NOK |
|
|
Norwegian Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
1.00% |
|
0.50% |
|
0.20% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
2.0% |
|
2.0% |
|
2.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.3% |
|
1.5% |
|
1.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian GDP (YoY) |
4.5% |
|
5.0% |
|
5.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (MoM) |
0.6% |
|
0.7% |
|
-0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (YoY) |
1.5% |
|
1.6% |
|
1.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Current Account |
-17.3B |
|
-17.0B |
|
-18.0B |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
344K |
|
360K |
|
366K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
0.1% |
|
0.5% |
|
-0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3074K |
|
3160K |
|
3165K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Mar. 01 |
01:00 |
CNY |
50.50 |
50.40 |
|
|
|
01:45 |
CNY |
50.40 |
50.40 |
|
|
|
07:00 |
GBP |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
08:30 |
CHF |
52.2 |
52.5 |
|
|
|
08:45 |
EUR |
47.60 |
47.80 |
|
|
|
08:50 |
EUR |
43.6 |
43.6 |
|
|
|
08:55 |
EUR |
50.1 |
50.1 |
|
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
47.8 |
47.8 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
76.3 |
76.3 |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
52.5 |
53.1 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Mar 05 10:10 Norway
Mar 05 10:15 Austria
Mar 05 10:30 Belgium
Mar 05 10:30 UK
Mar 05 15:30 UK
Mar 06 10:10 Sweden
Mar 06 10:30 Germany
Mar 07 09:30 Spain
Mar 07 09:50 France
Mar 07 15:30 Sweden
Mar 07 16:30 Italy
Mar 07 16:00 US
Mar 08 11:30 Belgium
Mar 08 16:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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