USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – November 20, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD slipped 47 points as the US dollar weakened after the release of the central bank minutes. The FOMC data showed exactly what markets expected a push for a rate increase in December. The CAD is trading at 1.3256. Oil fell below $40 for the first time since August on Wednesday, dragging the Canadian dollar lower.

U.S. data from the Energy Information Administration showed crude stocks in storage at an 80-year high. West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark North American contract, was trading at $39.65 earlier in the day. But by the close, it was up three cents to $40.70 US on optimism about the U.S. economy after release of the Fed minutes.

In Canada, sustained low oil prices have led to a fresh round of layoffs this fall in the oil patch and a pullback in capital investment by most businesses.

The Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors issued a forecast this morning showing a 58 per cent drop in oil well drilling in Canada in 2015.

Craig Fehr of Edward Jones says low oil prices may well be the new normal and that means slow growth for the Canadian economy.

Starting in mid-December, the Canadian dollar is widely expected to face a substantial amount of downside pressure. On Dec. 16, the U.S. Federal Reserve, or central bank for the United States, will make its next decision on interest rates in that country.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 20, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus