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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 27, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 03:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD fell 15 points to trade at 1.1217 as gold and oil continued to decline. The US dollar eased down off its recent

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 27, 2014 Forecast

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 27, 2014 Forecast
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 27, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD fell 15 points to trade at 1.1217 as gold and oil continued to decline. The US dollar eased down off its recent highs today and is trading at 85.91. Yesterday, economic  information company Markit said its composite purchasing managers’ index for the eurozone — a gauge of business activity across the manufacturing and services sectors — rose to 52.2 points in October from 52.0 in September. Anything above 50 indicates expansion. Also, HSBC’s preliminary version of an index based on a survey of Chinese factory purchasing managers rose to 50.4 from 50.2 in September. HSBC’s chief China economist, Hongbin Qu, said manufacturing likely stabilized in October but the world’s No. 2 economy continues to show signs of “insufficient” demand.

The loonie had slipped 0.12 of a cent Wednesday as the Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged at one per cent. Canada’s currency tumbled this month to a five-year low of $1.1385 per U.S. dollar as the price of oil, the country’s biggest export, fell 30% from a June peak. Without a sustained increase in crude, the local dollar will weaken at least another 4% to $1.18, according to Toronto-Dominion Bank and Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s two biggest lenders.

The slide in oil, caused by a combination of oversupply and falling global demand, is a setback for Canada. Since the recession, most new business investment and jobs have come from the oil-rich province of Alberta. The nation’s trade surplus turned into a deficit in August, and economic growth stalled the previous month.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM)

-1,350M

-700M

-472M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY)

650M

1,510M

2,020M

 

 

  EUR

 

GfK German Consumer

8.5

8.0

8.4

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

0.7%

0.7%

0.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

3.0%

3.0%

3.2%

 

 

  USD

 

New Home Sales (Sep)

 

470K

504K

 

 

  USD

 

New Home Sales

 

-5.8%

18.0%

 

 

USDCAD(60 minutes)20141024124253

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

Holiday

New Zealand – Labour Day

 

  EUR

 

German Business Expect

 

98.4

99.3

 

 

  EUR

 

German Current Assess

 

109.5

110.5

 

 

  EUR

 

German Ifo Climate Ind

 

104.1

104.7

 

 

  USD

 

Pending Home Sales 

 

0.3%

-1.0%

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction

 

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