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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 3, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 22:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD tumbled 68 points to trade at 1.1098 as the dollar eased ahead of the ECB meeting and tomorrow’s Nonfarm payroll

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 3, 2014 Forecast

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 3, 2014 Forecast
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 3, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD tumbled 68 points to trade at 1.1098 as the dollar eased ahead of the ECB meeting and tomorrow’s Nonfarm payroll report. The strengthening dollar is having a multi-pronged impact on the Canadian economy, along with capital outflow and a weaker yen that are both poised to pick up speed, economists and analysts said Thursday.

Economists expect the central bank to cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percent to 1.75 percent this month and by another 0.25 percent in November or December to support the export-oriented economy. Traders  expected the dollar to remain strong against major currencies because the U.S. Federal Reserve was widely expected to raise the interest rate in the second quarter of next year after wrapping up its quantitative easing programs this month.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Building Approvals

3.0%

1.0%

2.1%

 

 

  AUD

 

Trade Balance

-0.787B

-0.700B

-1.075B

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish Unemployment

19.7K

31.3K

8.1K

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Sep)

64.2

63.5

64.0

 

 

  EUR

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

0.05%

0.05%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

297K

293K

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Factory Orders (MoM)

 

-9.3%

10.5%

 

USDCAD(15 minutes)20141002114838

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (Sep)

 

59.1

60.5

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)

 

215K

142K

 

 

  USD

 

Unemployment Rate

 

6.1%

6.1%

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Non-Mfg. PMI

 

58.5

59.6

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 02 08:30 Spain Auctions 1.4% Jan 2020 & 2.75% Oct 2024 Obligations

Oct 02 08:50 France Eur 7-8bn 1.75% May 2023, 1.75% Nov 2024 & 2.75% Oct 2027

Oct 02 15:00 US Announces details of 3/10Y Note & 30Y bond auctions on Oct

Oct 07 06:00 Swiss Announces details of optional bond auction on Oct 08

Oct 07 09:00 Norway Bond auction

Oct 07 09:15 Austria RAGB auction

Oct 07 9:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Oct 07 15:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 10

Oct 07 17:00 US 3Y Note auction

Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction

Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)

Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction

Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction

Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction

 

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