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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD added 31 points after taking a late day tumble on Monday as the US dollar fell as traders booked profits after

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2014 Forecast

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2014 Forecast
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD added 31 points after taking a late day tumble on Monday as the US dollar fell as traders booked profits after Friday’s nonfarm payroll report. Investors show a 48 percent likelihood that the U.S. central bank will raise rates to 0.5 percent or higher by the end of July. The target rate has been maintained in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since 2008 to support the economy. The minutes of the Fed’s Sept. 16-17 meeting are due tomorrow.

The greenback has jumped 6.8 percent in the past three months, the best performer among 10 developed-nation currencies. The Canadian dollar bounded ahead more than a cent Monday amid a pause in the strong rally of the U.S. currency.

The dollar sank .72 of a U.S. cent Friday to a six-month low following weak trade data and a U.S. currency that appreciated amid stronger job creation last month. As of Friday, the loonie was down more than three cents from the beginning of September.

On the economic front, the major release of the week comes on Friday when Statistics Canada releases the employment report for September. Economists expect that the economy cranked out about 15,000 jobs.

The agency will also release building permits data for August on Tuesday while September data on housing starts will be released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. on Wednesday. FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

NZIER Business Confidence (Q3)

19%

 

32%

 

 

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Oct)

2.50%

2.50%

2.50%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Industrial Production

-4.0%

-1.5%

1.6%

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Industrial Production (MoM)

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production 

0.1%

0.1%

0.3%

 

 

  CAD

 

Building Permits (MoM) (Aug)

 

-13.0%

11.8%

 

 

  USD

 

JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)

 

4.71M

4.67M

 

 

USDCAD(60 minutes)20141007111602

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Adjusted Current Acct.

 

0.19T

0.10T

 

 

  JPY

 

Current Account n.s.a.

 

0.198T

0.417T

 

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Services PMI (Sep)

 

53.8

54.1

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Monthly Report

 

 

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Housing Starts (Sep)

 

196.0K

192.4K

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction

Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)

Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction

Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction

Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction

 

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