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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – September 1, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Aug 31, 2015, 10:17 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD gained 50 points to trade at 1.3250 as the US dollar recovered earlier losses. The US dollar continues to rally

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – September 1, 2015 – Forecast

usd cad bns month
Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD gained 50 points to trade at 1.3250 as the US dollar recovered earlier losses. The US dollar continues to rally as it looks like a September increase may be back in the cards while oil falls weighing on the CAD.

Several months of strong job creation have reduced unemployment to 5.3 percent, the lowest level since April 2008. Fischer said “we now await the results of the August employment survey, which are due to be published on Sept. 4.” Economists forecast a 220,000 August gain, up from the 211,000 gain averaged so far this year.

Yet inflation, measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge, has been under the bank’s target for more than three years. Price pressures in the U.S. rose 0.3 percent in the 12 months through July, held down by oil’s decline and a strengthened dollar.

Kroszner said Fischer’s comments were revealing in that they emphasized the forecast for inflation over the current level.

“Stan made clear we can’t just look at the past data, we have to look where inflation is going,” he said. “He’s not going to be constrained by low current inflation because he wants to make sure we stay ahead of the curve.”

Fischer showed confidence in the Fed’s predictive powers at an event where several of his peers acknowledged that economists had a miserable record of forecasting inflation

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

Imp.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

Holiday

United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Aug)  

 

0.1%

0.2%

   

 

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  CNY

 

Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

 

49.7

50.0

 

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

 

 

47.1

 

 

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Sep)

 

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

 

53.2

53.2

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Change (Aug)

 

-3K

9K

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

 

52.0

 

 

 

  CAD

 

GDP (MoM) (Jun)

 

0.2%

-0.2%

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

 

52.6

     

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Sep 01 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Sep 01 00:00 UK Announces details of 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Sep 02 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 02 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Sep 02 11:30 UK Auctions new Jan 2021 Gilt

Sep 03 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Sep 03 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 3yr note on 08 Sep, 10yr note on 09 Sep

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 10-year note on 09 Sep

 

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