Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD gained 50 points to trade at 1.3250 as the US dollar recovered earlier losses. The US dollar continues to rally
The USD/CAD gained 50 points to trade at 1.3250 as the US dollar recovered earlier losses. The US dollar continues to rally as it looks like a September increase may be back in the cards while oil falls weighing on the CAD.
Several months of strong job creation have reduced unemployment to 5.3 percent, the lowest level since April 2008. Fischer said “we now await the results of the August employment survey, which are due to be published on Sept. 4.” Economists forecast a 220,000 August gain, up from the 211,000 gain averaged so far this year.
Yet inflation, measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge, has been under the bank’s target for more than three years. Price pressures in the U.S. rose 0.3 percent in the 12 months through July, held down by oil’s decline and a strengthened dollar.
Kroszner said Fischer’s comments were revealing in that they emphasized the forecast for inflation over the current level.
“Stan made clear we can’t just look at the past data, we have to look where inflation is going,” he said. “He’s not going to be constrained by low current inflation because he wants to make sure we stay ahead of the curve.”
Fischer showed confidence in the Fed’s predictive powers at an event where several of his peers acknowledged that economists had a miserable record of forecasting inflation
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Imp. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
|
Holiday |
United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday |
|||||
EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Aug) |
|
0.1% |
0.2% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
|
49.7 |
50.0 |
|
||
CNY |
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
|
|
47.1 |
|
||
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision (Sep) |
|
2.00% |
2.00% |
|
||
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
|
53.2 |
53.2 |
|
||
EUR |
German Unemployment Change (Aug) |
|
-3K |
9K |
|
||
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
|
52.0 |
|
|
||
CAD |
GDP (MoM) (Jun) |
|
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
||
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
|
52.6 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Sep 01 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale
Sep 01 00:00 UK Announces details of 3.5% 2045 Gilt
Sep 02 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Sep 02 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl
Sep 02 11:30 UK Auctions new Jan 2021 Gilt
Sep 03 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones
Sep 03 11:10 France Auctions OATs
Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 3yr note on 08 Sep, 10yr note on 09 Sep
Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 10-year note on 09 Sep