USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 15 – 19, 2013 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CAD  ended the week at 1.0136 after opening on Monday at 1.0171. Poor eco data in the US on Friday saw the greenback easing allowing its crosses to gain momentum. There was little domestic data from Canada, with the focus having shifted to next week’s BoC statement and MPR. The CAD appears to be following broader trends of risk aversion and broad USD strength.

 

Canadian markets will be abuzz with activity next week through important updates on some of the most sensitive aspects of the country’s outlook and there will be something to chew on each day. Wednesday’s Bank of Canada statement and accompanying Monetary Policy Report will be key. The Bank of Canada to again revise near-term growth lower and to embrace a moderately more dovish tone. It will do so only in relative baby steps, however, in that the BoC will not wish to encourage markets to anticipate future monetary easing versus sticking to the playbook of an extended pause. On growth, traders only know January monthly GDP, but between that report and the hand-off from Q4 numbers are tracking under 1% annualized q/q growth in 2013Q1 versus the BoC’s January MPR forecast for 2.3% growth. Look for the BoC to roughly split the difference at this relatively early stage for firm data in the quarter. Inflation remains seriously undershooting the BoC’s 2% target and its financial stability concerns should be allayed by virtue of the fact that housing and debt markets have been rapidly cooling over the past year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of April 8-12 actual v. forecast for the Canadian & US Dollar

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.0853 CAD on May 25, 2010.

Average: 1.0090 CAD over this period.

Lowest: 0.9407  CAD on Jan 26, 2011.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the American and Canadian Markets

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Apr 16 00:30 Japan

Apr 16 08:30 Spain

Apr 16 09:10 Norway

Apr 16 09:30 Belgium

Apr 16 14:30 UK

Apr 17 09:10 Sweden

Apr 17 09:30 Germany

Apr 18 00:30 Japan

Apr 18 09:30 UK

Apr 18 08:30 Spain

Apr 18 08:50 France

Apr 18 09:50 France

Apr 18 15:00 US

Apr 18 17:00 US

Apr 19 15:30 Italy