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USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 16 – November 20, 2015 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Nov 14, 2015, 16:15 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:  The USD/CAD rose last week, driven higher by the probability of a December interest rate hike by the Fed and falling

USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 16 – November 20, 2015 Forecast

USDCAD
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:  The USD/CAD rose last week, driven higher by the probability of a December interest rate hike by the Fed and falling crude oil prices. For the week, the Forex pair was up 0.0025, or 0.19% to finish at 1.3324. 

Crude oil prices fell over 7% to a 2-month low on oversupply concerns. This led to lower demand for the Canadian Dollar. Oil prices weakened after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 4.22 million barrel build versus a 1.0 million barrel build estimate. 

In other news, the Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s largest lender advised its clients to fund their carry trades with the Canadian Dollar, not the Euro until the Bank of Canada takes action. Canadian housing data came out in line with expectations. 

The key focus this week will be on consumer inflation with the U.S. reporting on November 17 and Canada reporting on November 20. 

U.S. consumer inflation is expected to show an increase of 0.2%. A steady-to-better reading will likely increase the odds of a Fed rate hike in December. This would be bullish for the USD/CAD. 

Canadian consumer inflation is expected to come out at 1.0%. The Bank of Canada Price Core Year-over-Year is expected to bring 2.1%. 

Forecast:  Unless traders are surprised by substantially stronger Canadian CPI data or a weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI number, the USD/CAD’s direction will be primarily driven by the direction of crude oil prices. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks. 

Weekly USD/CAD
Weekly USD/CAD

Reports to Watch This Week:

           Date                        Time              Curr                                            Events                                         Forecast   Previous

Sun Nov 15

All Day

ALL

 

G20 Meetings

         

Mon Nov 16

 8:30am ET

CAD

 

Manufacturing Sales m/m

   

0.3%

-0.2%

 
   

CAD

 

Foreign Securities Purchases

   

4.12B

3.11B

 
   

USD

 

Empire State Manufacturing Index

   

-5.3

-11.4

 

Tue Nov 17

8:30am ET

USD

 

CPI m/m

   

0.2%

-0.2%

 
   

USD

 

Core CPI m/m

   

0.2%

0.2%

 
 

9:15am ET

USD

 

Capacity Utilization Rate

   

77.5%

77.5%

 
   

USD

 

Industrial Production m/m

   

0.1%

-0.2%

 
 

17th-19th

USD

 

Mortgage Delinquencies

     

5.30%

 
 

10:00am ET

USD

 

NAHB Housing Market Index

   

64

64

 
 

4:00pm ET

USD

 

TIC Long-Term Purchases

     

20.4B

 

Wed Nov 18

8:00am ET

USD

 

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

         
 

8:30am ET

USD

 

Building Permits

   

1.15M

1.11M

 
   

USD

 

Housing Starts

   

1.16M

1.21M

 
 

10:30am ET

USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

     

4.2M

 
 

2:00pm ET

USD

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes

         

Thu Nov 19

8:30am ET

CAD

 

Wholesale Sales m/m

     

-0.1%

 
   

USD

 

Unemployment Claims

   

272K

276K

 
 

10:00am ET

USD

 

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

   

0.1

-4.5

 
   

USD

 

CB Leading Index m/m

   

0.5%

-0.2%

 
 

10:30am ET

USD

 

Natural Gas Storage

         
 

12:30pm ET

USD

 

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

         

Fri Nov 20

8:30am ET

CAD

 

Core CPI m/m

     

0.2%

 
   

CAD

 

Core Retail Sales m/m

     

0.0%

 
   

CAD

 

CPI m/m

     

-0.2%

 
   

CAD

 

Retail Sales m/m

     

0.5%

 

Sat Nov 21

12:00pm ET

USD

 

FOMC Member Williams Speaks

         

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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