USDJPY, AUDUSD and NZDUSD Forecast: Shifting Market Sentiments

Key Insights

• USDJPY braces for its best weekly rise in months, AUDUSD and NZDUSD poised for gains.
• Weakened USD after labor data sets stage for potential Fed rate adjustments, impacting pairs.
• Yen benefits from USD retreat; AUDUSD, NZDUSD recover from lows as currencies firm up.
• BoJ’s dovish stance tempers yen’s short-term outlook; AUD and NZD await central bank cues.
• Market eyes Fed’s next moves, with implications for USDJPY, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD trends.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

Asian currencies remained steady following a strong rally, while the U.S. dollar is on the brink of a notable weekly decline, propelled by soft labor market data which hinted at a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut by mid-2024.

The dollar’s retreat allowed Asian currencies to make substantial weekly gains, bouncing back from recent lows. The Japanese yen, reaping the benefits of the dollar’s slump, is poised for its most substantial weekly gain in over four months, despite Japan’s economy contracting more than expected in the September quarter.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s commitment to an ultra-dovish policy offers little immediate respite for the yen. Meanwhile, weak U.S. data, including a slowing inflation rate, feeds speculation that the Fed’s cycle of monetary tightening is nearing its end, shifting focus to the timing of future rate cuts.

This anticipation of a shift in U.S. monetary policy could significantly impact USDJPY, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD, with potential narrowing interest rate differentials favoring non-U.S. currencies.

USD/JPY Prices Forecast

In today’s financial landscape, the USD/JPY currency pair’s recent performance has sparked keen interest among investors. The pair’s current price hovers at 150.535, reflecting a slight deceleration within the 4-hour chart’s broader uptrend.

Notably, the pair is testing the fortitude of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which stands at 150.893, serving as a potential pivot point for future price action.

Immediate support is identified at 150.245, with subsequent support at 149.646, suggesting a critical region where the pair’s resilience may be tested.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a cooling of bullish momentum with a reading near 45.42, positioning the pair at a crossroads that could lead to either a consolidation or a deeper retracement.

AUD/USD Prices Forecast

The Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar (AUD/USD) presents a nuanced picture in today’s session, maintaining a modest uptrend as reflected in the 4-hour chart. Currently trading at 0.64655, the pair shows a fractional 0.04% increase, suggesting a tempered bullish sentiment.

Key resistance levels are established at 0.65208 and 0.65552, with a pivotal resistance at 0.66128 that could signal further bullish advancement. Support levels are observed at 0.63956, with further cushions at 0.63496 and 0.63170, which could be tested should the pair retract.

The RSI indicator reads at 63.43, indicating a market that is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for potential directional movements. The MACD suggests a bullish bias as it nears the signal line.

The price hovering above the 50 EMA at 0.64398 supports the short-term uptrend narrative. Chart patterns show a potential symmetrical triangle, hinting at a consolidation phase that precedes a potential breakout.

The overall trend leans bullish, with the short-term forecast anticipating a test of the 0.65208 resistance, contingent on the pair maintaining its momentum above the 50 EMA and key support levels.

NZD/USD Prices Forecast

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD), often seen as a bellwether for trade sentiment, shows a hint of resilience in today’s market, trading slightly higher at 0.59592, a modest increase of 0.06%.

The pair is currently navigating within a critical junction, as indicated by the 4-hour chart, wrestling with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level that lies at 0.59534.

Immediate support and resistance levels are tactically placed at 0.59300 and 0.60528 respectively, offering clear boundaries for the currency’s short-term trajectory.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, suggesting buyers have the upper hand for now, without venturing into overbought territory.

The currency’s struggle against the USD will be a test of market sentiment, with traders keeping a close eye on global economic cues and the RBNZ’s monetary policy stance for directional impetus.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.