The Week Ahead: Markets Watch CPI, Retail Sales, and Powell’s Inflation Outlook

Weekly Market Recap and the Inflation Watch Ahead

U.S. stocks ended lower last week as indexes struggled to extend their rebound. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.3%, and the Dow lost 0.2%. Markets paused near key technical resistance while traders braced for pivotal inflation data and central bank signals.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for a third straight meeting, highlighting elevated risks to both inflation and unemployment. Chair Powell reiterated a cautious stance, with bond markets pricing in rate cuts as early as July. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.38%, signaling investor uncertainty around the Fed’s path forward.

On the global front, the U.S. finalized a limited trade agreement with the U.K. and scheduled talks with China in Geneva this weekend. While initial in scope, any easing in tariff tensions could provide relief to import-heavy sectors over the summer.

The earnings calendar was light, but that changes in the days ahead with high-profile reports from Walmart, Cisco, Applied Materials, and Take-Two Interactive. Traders will be watching for commentary on consumer trends, enterprise demand, and cost pressure.

The focus this week is squarely on inflation and spending. CPI, retail sales, and Powell’s Thursday speech are all expected to drive interest rate expectations and set the tone for markets heading into summer.

Key Economic Reports and Earnings on the Radar

Monday:
• 14:25 GMT – Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaks
• 18:00 GMT – U.S. Federal Budget (April)

Tuesday:
• 10:00 GMT – NFIB Small Business Index (April)
• 12:30 GMT – CPI, Core CPI (April); Est. +0.3% MoM, +2.3% YoY headline
• Earnings: Camtek, CyberArk, Under Armour, Sea Ltd, Silicon Labs before open; CAE, Exelixis, Oklo, WEBTOON after close

Wednesday:
• 21:40 GMT – San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks
• Earnings spotlight: Cisco Systems (after close) – Est. $0.92 EPS on $14.1B revenue; Splunk acquisition impact in focus
• Other reports: Dynatrace, Endava, Arcos Dorados, Nextracker, Luminar, DXC

Thursday:
• 12:30 GMT – Retail Sales (April); PPI, Core PPI, Empire State, Philly Fed, Jobless Claims
• 13:15 GMT – Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
• 14:00 GMT – Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Index
• 12:40 GMT – Fed Chair Powell speaks; post-inflation read-through likely market-moving
• Earnings: Walmart (pre-market) – Est. $0.58 EPS on $164.5B revenue; Applied Materials, Globant, CAVA, Doximity, Take-Two after close

Friday:
• 12:30 GMT – Housing Starts, Building Permits, Import Prices (April)
• 14:00 GMT – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (prelim, May)
• 21:40 GMT – San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks again

Fed Speeches: Powell and Daly Headline the Calendar

The most market-sensitive event will be Powell’s Thursday remarks at 12:40 GMT, following key inflation and spending reports. Traders will be parsing every word for any hint at policy shift timing. Mary Daly’s appearances on Wednesday and Friday provide additional insight into the Fed’s inflation assessment.

Technical Picture: Indexes Meet Resistance at Key Levels

All three major indexes continue to trade below major resistance on the weekly chart.

• Nasdaq closed at 17,929, under its 52-week SMA of 18,182

• S&P 500 ended at 5,660, with resistance at 5,690 and support at 5,491

• Dow Jones settled at 41,269, stalling under the 52-week SMA of 41,657

Outlook: Inflation, Spending, and Sentiment Drive the Setup

This week’s setup is driven by a triple-threat of CPI, retail sales, and Powell’s policy tone. These will shape expectations around the first rate cut and determine whether stocks can push through overhead resistance. Friday’s consumer sentiment reading will add another layer, especially if inflation concerns are reflected in household expectations.

On the earnings front, key reports from Cisco, Walmart, Applied Materials, and Take-Two could inject further volatility into sector moves. With resistance holding and key data clustered midweek, traders should prepare for reaction-driven price swings.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.