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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis June 14, 2013 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY tumbled to trade at 94.81 with the JPY gaining 120 points today as trader show their disappointment of lack of
Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/JPY tumbled to trade at 94.81 with the JPY gaining 120 points today as trader show their disappointment of lack of additional stimulus from the Bank of Japan and little news from Prime Minister Abe on this 3rd arrow or business tax plans. As stocks fell, a risk-averse mood grew in the foreign exchange market and the yen drew safe-haven demand. There were fund shifts to the yen from the currencies of some emerging economies, a bank official said. Carrying over its sluggish tone from overseas trading, the dollar was weak below 94.85 in early trading. It attracted buybacks and rose to around ¥96.50 later, partly aided by demand from real demand-backed players.
The yield, or interest rate, on benchmark 10-year bonds shot up to 1 percent for the first time in a year late last month, although it later headed back down. In the bond market, yields go up when prices drop, so even tiny moves in those rates can translate into lots of yen made or lost. The lavish revival policies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, including the Bank of Japan’s doubling the money supply in two years, are designed to wrest the nation out of deflation and two decades of economic deflation. But at the heart of “Abenomics” is a contradiction: Japan may not be able to afford the inflation that Abe’s grand ambition hopes to ignite.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data June 13, 2013 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Jun. 13 |
|
NZD |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
2.50% |
|
2.50% |
|
2.50% |
|
|
|
|
|
NZD |
|
|
RBNZ Rate Statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NZD |
|
|
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Foreign Bonds Buying |
-386.9B |
|
|
|
-1172.5B |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
MI Inflation Expectations |
2.3% |
|
|
|
2.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Employment Change |
1.1K |
|
-10.0K |
|
45.0K |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
5.5% |
|
5.6% |
|
5.6% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD
|
Jun. 14 |
13:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-109.0B |
-110.4B |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
-0.7% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.4% |
0.6% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.7% |
1.7% |
|
|
|
14:15 |
USD |
0.2% |
-0.5% |
|
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
84.5 |
84.5 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Jun 14 00:30 Japan
Jun 14 10:30 Belgium
Jun 17 09:00 Slovakia
Jun 17 09:10 Norway
Jun 18 00:30 Japan
Jun 18 08:30 Spain
Jun 18 09:30 Belgium
Jun 19 09:30 Germany
Jun 19 09:30 Portugal
Jun 20 08:30 Spain
Jun 20 08:50 France
Jun 20 09:30 UK
Jun 20 09:50 France
Jun 20 15:00 US
Jun 20 15:30 Italy
Jun 20 17:00 US
Jun 21 15:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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