USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis, May 15, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY gained 3 points as the Japanese yen weakened in a strange trading session. The dollar fell to trade at 93.63 while the USDJPY held at 119.18. The Bank of Japan said that the M2 money stock in Japan was up 3.6 percent on year in April, coming in at 904.2 trillion yen. That was in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.

The M3 money stock was up an annual 3.0 percent to 1,219.2 trillion yen – also matching forecasts and unchanged from the March reading. The L money stock advanced 3.1 percent on year to 1,601.2 trillion yen after gaining 3.3 percent a month earlier. In the currency market, the U.S. dollar traded in the lower 119 yen-range on Thursday, down from the upper 119 yen-range at close on Wednesday.

The April retail sales numbers added to the raft of weak data that has pushed back market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which has prompted investors to trim their bets that the dollar would make further gains this year. Investors hoping that April data would show the U.S. economy has turned a corner must continue their wait, said Mark McCormick, currency strategist at Credit Agricole.

Japan had a 2.8 trillion yen ($23 billion dollars) excess in its broadest measure of trade, the finance ministry said on Wednesday. The result was wider than a median estimate of 2.1 trillion yen in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

A cheaper energy combined with an influx of tourists attracted by a weaker yen and increasing income from investments abroad by Japanese companies are helping to increase the surplus. The boost aids an economy that’s weighed down by sluggish spending by consumers and businesses at home.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

 

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, May 15, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May