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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 9, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 6, 2015, 04:33 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY eased by 7 points to 121.66 trading near the top of its quarterly trading range as the US dollar mounts momentum

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 9, 2015 – Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY eased by 7 points to 121.66 trading near the top of its quarterly trading range as the US dollar mounts momentum ahead of today’s nonfarm payroll as well as Fed speakers all pushing a December rate increase. The dollar traded within sight of its highest level in a decade versus major peers ahead of U.S. employment reports that may help determine if the Federal Reserve will raise rates this year. Chinese stocks were mixed after the Shanghai Composite Index entered a bull market Thursday.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady, with the greenback having gained against 12 of 16 major peers over the past five days. Gold was higher after seven straight daily declines.

The dollar has surged as Fed officials including Chair Janet Yellen have reiterated that they may well lift rates next month if the data support it. Economists predict the October payrolls report will show an increase in hiring from September, albeit at a pace below the year-to-date average, while the unemployment rate may drop to 5 percent; the lowest since April 2008.

The yen weakened 0.9 percent this week, to 121.69 per dollar. The currency touched 122 per dollar on Thursday. That was the weakest level since Aug. 24, when Chinese shares began a two-day, 15 percent plunge that sent investors scurrying for the relative safety of havens such as the yen.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks  

 

 

 

   

 

usdjpy

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 9, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance (Sep)

 

20.0B

19.6B

 

 

  EUR

 

Eurogroup Meetings  

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction

 

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